I. The Business Cycles 2 podcasts, 1 video
II. Business Cycle History 5 videos
III. Unemployment 6 videos
IV. Inflation

V. Are Wages Stagnant?   010/26/16    

Please 

Chapter 9 The Business Cycle       

VI. World Economic Update Council on Foreign Relations, 11, 17,16 latest   
VII. Additional Readings
VIII. The Great Recession

IX. U.S. Economic Normality 1945-2015 p 2  economic effect of world politics
One-Page Economics key political economy concepts and discussion topics.
Play the St. Louis Fed's Economic Forecasting Game.             source

I. The Business Cycle Measures Fluctuating Business Activity
     A. Recession: commonly accepted definition is two consecutive quarters
          of  negative growth in Real GDP
     B. Why business economic activity fluctuated follows a cycle
     C. Should we jettison GDP as an economic success points out many shortcomings. 

Recent Growth Cycles
 Seven recessions from 1950-1985 Only Two Since

Recovery from the Great Recession

 

Since 1950 Only the Great Recession Had a Negative Year

       C. Causes
            1.  Inventory Recession: Excessive optimism causes inventories to over expand
                 and eventually be worked down causing a recession. Computers have
                 made easier to track inventory and made this type of recessions less likely. 
            2. Endogenous Shock not foreseen by economic models oil embargo
                recessions of the 1970's of 70's.
            3. Rolling Recession Downturn is limited to areas or sectors of the economy. 
                a. Economic activity eventually increases but by then other areas and sectors
                    are in recession. 
                b. International competition has increased the occurrence of this type of
                    recession as sectors such as steel, autos, and recently computers have
                    been affected.
            4. Balance sheet recession: private sector debt causes a focus on paying
                down debt which lowers aggregate demand and substantially lowering
                economic growth.  
                a. Causes of the Great Recession
                b. An Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007-08
                c. Often require a central bank to act as a Lender of last resort

            5. Innovation Cycle: railroads, computers, bio-technology  cause growth/crash
            6. Political Events: wars, international trade
            7. Misuse of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: government creates, borrows and or
                spends an incorrect amount of money to moderate economic activity.
                a. Well run economies like Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. are all recently guilty.
                b. Some feel Chain's authoritarian government which has successfully navigated
                   growth for 30 years will again steer clear of catastrophe but  Ruchir Sharma's

               
2016 book The Rise and Fall of Nations: Ten Rules of Change in the Post-
                    Crisis World’, thinks they are in Deep Do Do, or D3    for math people.
           
8. Non-cyclical Fluctuations
                a. Seasonal variation: Christmas buying rush, spring construction 
                b. Long-Term Secular Trends: the expansion or contraction in the
                    level of economic activity over a long period of years (the dark 
                    ages, the industrial revolution) For more visit
                    1) Long Waves Theories of Development from Professor Kunter Krumme,
                    2) Call this a Recession, At Least It is Not the Dark Ages
              
     3) Generations and The Fourth Turning
            9. Abbott and Costello Explain the Unemployment Situation

          10. Action to Stop Recent Recessions, NYT 1p
 

 

 

Q4 GDP A Bumbling 1.9%

The GDP initial estimate reports a weak 1.9% economic growth for the 4th quarter.  Imports really hammered GDP, just in time to validate now President Trump.  Consumer spending was lower while changes in private inventories added a full percentage point to Q4 GDP.  Generally speaking this report shows just how much imports can slow economic growth.  U.S. Exports curtailed and as a result, -1.7 percentage points of GDP were lost in Q4.  Yes America, the trade deficit is back.  

As a reminder, GDP is made up of: Y=C+I+G+{\left(X-M\right)} where Y=GDP, C=Consumption, I=Investment, G=Government Spending, (X-M)=Net Exports, X=Exports, M=Imports*.  GDP in this overview, unless explicitly stated otherwise, refers to real GDP.  Real GDP is in chained 2009 dollars.

  D. Recoveries Can Be Slow and Weak

     Historical Length of Recoveries - Click to enlarge

chart-book-the-legacy-of-the-great-recession source=CBPP

See Our Studies
The Financial Crisis
Most Severe US Recessions
2015 Political Economy Controversies
Action to Stop Recent Recessions, NYT
Bubbles  Credit And Their Consequences FED looks at mortgages
Democratic Capitalism vs. Capitalistic Democracy 

 


 

Editor's Note: Note the ten year recovery was the 1990s. The Vietnam expansion of the 1960s. The longest was after WW2 and included the Korean War. Does anyone want to invade Clinton or Trump to increase and extend current recovery by Syria plus bringing back the draft?

     E. Predicting Recessions

          1. Leading Indicators forecast Recessions

      2. Understanding Contrary Indicators  

 

Source econintersect.com:Leading Economic Index Sharply Improves

Leading Indicators Links

Economic Forecast Outlook Barely Positive is extensive with many graphs 2/16
Leading Economic Indicators 2007/01/leading-economic
Index of Leading Indicators – Premature to Rule out Recession  A. Bangalore-Northern Trust, 5 19, 08
http://tinyurl.com/4gma4w
LEI and KRWI - It's Different This Time? P. Kasriel Northern Trust, 4/21/07
RECESSION IMMINENT?  LEI AND KRWI ARE FLASHING WARNING, Paul L. Kasriel 3 22,07  
Leading indicators a short history of the numbers that rule our world 2/14 NYT
The Evolution Of Economic Indicators

 

Current Conditions

           1.
U.S. Fiscal Policy Reality and Outlook/ 5/20/16
               and Current Business-Cycle Conditions from AIER
           2. Why The Great Recession yields a slow recovery          
           3. 20th Century U.S. Decade Ranking indicate US doing well.
           4. The Big 4 Economic Indicators Since the Bottom
           5. The Story of the American Recovery in 15 charts
           6. Secular Stagnation
           7. Learning from the Great Recession
               a. Lessons Ignored from the 1930's 23 min video
               b. Harsh Lessons Historical
               c. Have Ghosts of 1937 Returned to Haunt Us?              
          8. Credit and crises and the economic shocks of 2016 podcast 40 minutes
              Bubbles based on both housing and asset credit means deep-do-do
         
9. Econ Talk Podcast Recession, Stagnation, and Monetary Policy EconTalk Podcast 1/9/17
        10. The Great Stagnation by Tyler Cowen  88 min. Video
       
11.
Mark Blyth: After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees 57 min. video

Unit I. Review peak economic activity, recession, recovery, expansion

 

 

II. History of the Business Cycle
      A. General
           1 Most Severe US Recessions
           2. A Brief History of U S Banking will provide examples of what has
               caused the business cycle in the United States.
           3. The Financial Swindle-of-All-Time
           4. The first financial panic
               a. Causes of the 1837 Panic
               b. Panic of 1837
               c. Effects of Panic of 1837
         5. S&P earnings cycles
             a. Part 1: 1871 - 1900,  Source
             b. part-2-1900- 1925
         6. Boettke podcast on the Austrian Perspective on 
             Business Cycles and Monetary Policy
         7. Hemline Index and Predictions
         8. Cycles Lists
             a. List of U.S. Recessions
             b. Business Cycle data since 1854 from NBER
             c. Top 10 Worldwide 20th Century Financial Crises 
                 10. The Panic of 1907: The fourth so-called ”panic” in 34 years.
                   9. The Mexican Peso Crisis 1994 aka “The December Mistake” Punta!
                   8. Argentine economic crisis - 1999 If you have no money, is it a good
                       idea to print  more?
                   7. German hyperinflation - 1918-24 If you have to print a 1,000-billion
                        Mark note, you probably have too much inflation.
                   6. Souk Al-Manakh - 1982 Try not to use post dated to buy stocks
                   5. Black Monday - 1987 Can we call a 23% drop in a single day
                       a black swan?
                   4. Russian financial crisis - 1998 devaluation of the ruble and
                       cancellation of debt is never good for a local stock market.
                   3. East Asian financial crisis - 1997 aka the Asian Contagion
                   2. Black Tuesday - 1929 — Really? One day, and not the entire 
                       Great Depression?
                   1. 1973 Oil Crisis — Big energy price increases cause recessions
               9. The Long Depression And Panic Of 1873
 

 

 

  Building America's Democratic Federalist Republic
1. The Early Colonial Period
2. Determining Political Power and "We the People"
3. Increasing We" of "We the People"

4. Thomas Jefferson Leader of the Opposition
5. Constitutional History of Our
Democratic Federalist Republic
   
         B. Great Depression by Robert J. Samuelson,
              
1. Amity Shales on the Great Depression 
                 
EconTalk, Russ Roberts interviews Amity Shlaes, Bloomberg
                  columnist and visiting senior fellow at the Council on Foreign
                  Relations. She talks about her new book, The Forgotten Man:
                  A New History of the Great Depression
. Podcast discusses
                  Herbert Hoover, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the economics of
                 The Great Depression, On EconLog and in his column at TCS
                  Daily, Arnold Kling also added insight to Shlaes's observations
              3. Did France Cause the Great Depression
              4. What Caused the Recession of 1937-38?
              
5. The Battle of Smoot-Hawley The Economist 12/18/08
         C. Post WW 2 Business Cycles
          D. Recession of 2007 Articles
              1. Great Recession reviewed in a paragraph.
              
2. A Business Cycle Ends, U.S. Workers Lose Ground slide show reviews
                 
the latest business expansion ending in early 2008. 
              
3. On the Economy CNBC Video, 4/1008 An overview of the economy
                   with Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning of PIMCO
              
4. Fed Watch: Turning Which Corner? 05//09
              
5. Older Americans Made Recession Look Better April 2010, by
                 
M. Kudlyak, D. Reilly and S. Slivinski, FED Richmond. 
              
6. Five ways deflation has already takenhold is a concise forty year review
                  of recent cycles From renown economist G Shilling from Bloomberg.com 
              
7. Great American Economic Growth Myth
             
8. The Week Inequality Debt And Credit Stagnation
              
9. Great Moderation preceded the Great Recession
         
E. Bubbles Credit And Their Consequences FED looks into predicting bubbles
      F. Videos and graphs
         
1. American-Experience 29 Crash
         
2. South Sea Bubble of 1720 video
         
3. Great Recession Slow Recovery Videos Episode 1  2

Great Recession on top of Two Bush Wars
and Medicare Part D Caused Problems

1 of 10 scary-2017 Charts

\

Recovering from Great Recession 

Video 1 establishes recovery actually has been weak, even compared to other
recoveries following deep recessions and financial crises.

Video 2 examines the possible causes of the weakness.

Video 3 concentrates on in my view, is the main cause—government economic policy.

Sources Econ 1 Blog and
First Principles: 5 Keys to Restoring  America Prosperity

  III. Unemployment
    A. 3 Types of Unemployment
            1. Frictional caused by labor market time lags.
                a. Workers are between employment because they have been fired, are
                     changing careers, are seasonal workers, have been temporarily laid off, etc.
                b. Short-term, inevitable, temporary, and is eliminated with time.
            2. Structural caused by changes in consumer demand and technology.
                a. Result is an oversupply of workers with a particular skill. 
                b. This unemployment is often concentrated in a particular area,
                    associated with a particular industry, and is often permanent. 
                c. Increased economic activity will not decrease this type of 
                    unemployment as training and/or relocation are required.
                d. Happened in the 1970's and early 1980's as consumers decided to buy
                    small foreign built cars and other products produced in the Rust Belt. 
                    Now it is happening because NAFTA and foreign competition  are causing
                    industries to restructuring is needed because of  foreign competition.
           3. Cyclical
               a. Caused by a lack of total demand at the end of an economic expansion 
               b. Temporary
               c. Video 8 min.
               d. Recession of the early 1990's was due to a drop in demand caused by a
                   debt buildup in the 1980's by individuals, businesses, and the federal 
                   government. Apprehension caused by high structural unemployment 
                   of both blue and white collar workers slowed the recovery.
               e. Recession of 2001 was caused by debt build up of individuals resulting
                   from the long period of prosperity and the stock market bubble, excess
                   capital investment caused by Y2K and internet

         
4. Four Videos
                     a. Structural and Frictional
                     b.
Cyclical

                        
 c. Natural
                         
d. Generation Jobless Editor's Note: US party line is the same as in Canada.
                         Historically capitalism has solve the problem. Solutions include shorter work
                         week, more vacations, Ubers, less borrowing, and lower supply. See
                        
Personal Advancement

Image result for economic stagnation cartoon

 

Image result for unemployment cartoons

Image result for unemployment cartoons

   B. Key Unemployment Topics
         
1. Natural unemployment rate (frictional + structural unemployment)
               is usually 4-6% of the labor force 
           2. Full employment is when cyclical unemployment equals zero 
           3. Okun's Law: a 1% increase in cyclical unemployment (actual rate - 
               natural rate) will cause  a 2.0% annual drop in GNP.
               a. GNP change = (2.0) (unemployment rate change)
               b. If unemployment goes up 2% as it did in the 1990-91 recession
                   then the drop in GNP would be 2.0 X 2% or 4%.
               c. Approximate first year (2009) cost of the Great Recession 
                  (3.5% X $14,000,000,000,000) /300,000,000 =
                   $1,633/person  
         
           
   d. Okun's Law and the Great Recession 3/28/12
               e. Okun's Law, Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis 12/27/13
          4. Labor Force Participation Rate from The Big Picture blog.
          5. Noneconomic costs of unemployment include loss of skills,
              self-esteem, and social-political unrest. (Greece may run into this 
              problem in late 2012)
        
  6. Discouraged workers leaving the workforce lowers unemployment.
              first 2 charts courtesy of Gluskin Shef
  
        7. Q&A: Unemployment Extension WSJ, 11/18/10
          8. Gallup has Higher Unemployment and Underemployment
              than the government. 04/01/11
          9. How The Government Manipulates Unemployment Statistics  
              D. R. Amerman  3/12
       10. 2 Videos on the negative effects of minimum wage on employment

  C. Readings

        1
. Broad Unemployment Across the U.S.
Interactive map from the 7/14/09 NYT.         
        2.  Economics of
Minimum Wage
        3. Sticky Wages Hold Back Job Growth WSJ, 11/12/10
        4. Exploring Different Unemploymnet Risks

   D. More Unemployment Data

 Unit III. Review Unemployment causes frication within employment process, structure problems, cycle effects

"What is Unemployment

To answer this question first requires a few definitions. A person is considered unemployed if he or she is actively seeking work and willing to take work here and now. It is therefore not sufficient to simply not be working. But this definition of unemployment does necessarily define (1) whether someone who is underemployed should be counted as well or (2) how intensely someone must search for a job to qualify as unemployed. For this reason, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides different unemployment rates, graphed above. These are commonly called U-1 through U-6:

  • U-1 counts only those who have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks, which was traditionally a little longer than the average duration of an unemployment spell. This is considered to exclude short-term unemployment.
  • U-2 counts those who are unemployed because they have lost a job or completed a temporary job—in other words, workers in a precarious situation in the labor market, as they are more likely to find an unstable or unsatisfying job.
  • U-3 is the headline unemployment rate generally reported in the media: People who are able to work, ready to work, and have looked for work in the past four weeks. This corresponds the most closely to the definition of unemployment we started with.
  • U-4 is U-3 plus those who would like to work but have stopped looking—the so-called discouraged workers—because they believe there are no jobs for them.
  • U-5 is U-4 plus those who are marginally attached to the labor market who, for any reason, are no longer searching for work but may still work.
  • U-6 is U-5 plus those who are working part-time but would prefer to work full-time.

These various interpretations of the definition of unemployment allow us to have a better understanding of the status on the labor market. But one may still have some misgivings about them. For example, the higher-numbered definitions give equal weight to different classes of unemployed workers. For example, should a person qualifying for U-1 count as much as a person qualifying only for U-5 and U-6 when evaluating the health of the labor market? To address this question, there is the Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange index that creates a weighted sum of the different categories. The goal is to evaluate the underutilization of labor in the economy. This index (it is available with and without the part-time workers from U-6) is plotted below along with the popular U-3."

 

 

Bad But Getting Better

part.time.plus.unemployed.annotated.600x480

source

It's Been Worse

Editors Note: The calamity of the1930 resulted in federal programs like
 food stamps, Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security and TANF to help the unemployed.

 

Unemployment Last Two Big Recessions
Great Recession Was Not So Great

 

April 2014 Update May 2014 report pushed employment  back to the 100% of prerecession level. Graph from calculated risk blog with text and updates by textbooksfree.org

 

Chart 2: Unemployment Rate by Type of Previous Job

   

Editors Note: The unemployment rate was high in 2011, 2012 and early 2013. But, calling it a Great Recession compared to the 1970's and early 1980's which also had inflation which really  hurt those on fixed incomes and those with non real estate assets is an exaggeration. Especially since the earlier period had two periods of high  unemployment and ten plus years of slow growth might. wikipedia be a bit of a stretch?  See 16) Stagflation and the Rise of Supply-Side Economics

NYT 5/28/12

North-Caroling crushes unemployed 12/17/13
Arguing Over Extending Unemployment Benefits  12/14/13

   IV. Inflation
        A.  Calculating Inflation: What does a basket of goods cost?
             1. An increase in prices is measured by a price index
                 a. Consumer Price Index, CPI
                 b. Producer Price Index, PPI
             2. The PPI measures the change in wholesale priced goods..
             3. The PPI is a leading indicator for CPI as wholesalers can usually
                 pass price changes on to retailers  who pass them to consumer.
                 a. Recent increases in foreign competition made passing
                     price increases on more difficult.
                 b. The internet had the same kind of affect in the late 1990's.
             4. Calculating  inflationary rate for a year when a basket of consumer 
          &nsp;p;    goods increase from $400 to $420 would be calculated as follows.
            5. Chained Consumer Price Index allows basked of goods to
                change, if oranges are expensive, buy bananas
                a. What if chained cpi had been used to calculate COLA?
                b.  CPI-urban since 1913 check out the 70'
            6. Some question government procedures when calculating 
                inflation and  economic growth.
                a. Shadow Government Statistics  
             b. Grossly Distorted Procedures
                   
is a way of accounting for the changing product quality
                    when calculating price movements. For example, today's
                    computers are 2 to 3 times faster and have more
                    memory than models produced just a few years ago.
                    If someone can buy a better computer today than last
                    year for the same price, have not prices really fallen?
                    Here is another example. Is it realistic to compare the
                    price of a 1955 Chevy with the price of a 2005 Toyota
                    with air conditioning, DVD 
                    player, anti-lock breaks, seat belts, air bags, side air
                    bags, power steering, power brakes, etc etc etc? See
                   Price Hedonics: A Critical Review and

                   A Note on the Impact of Hedonics and Computers on Real GDP.
             
7.  Financial Sense Online - The Core Rate
                  a. Monthly Labor Review
                     counters the Shadow Government Statistics
                     arguments concerning inflation calculations          
                 b. An-analysis-of-government-statistics introduction-and-the-cpi 
        B. Causes of Inflation
             1. Demand-pull inflation
                 a. Increases in C + I + G + XN will cause GDP to increase.
                 b. As the economy nears full employment, the prosperity 
                     caused by high employment
                     increases demand and put upward pressure on prices.
                 c. When this happens, the economy is said to be overheated.
             2. Cost-Push Inflation
                 a. As the economy approaches full employment factor resources 
                     become scarce allowing their owners to increase prices.
                 b. Supply-side shocks can cause high resource prices even if 
                     demand for resources is low, i.e., OPEC's two oil embargoes 
                     of the 1970's
       C. Economic Effect of Inflation
           1. Both income and resource allocations are affected by inflation 
               as the market tries to adjust to the loss in value caused by inflation.
               a. High gas prices in the 1970's caused a switch to small cars and
                   many people bought wood stoves.
               b. Low gas prices in the 1990's made RV's less expensive to run.
           2. Debtors (homeowners, businesses, government) are helped by high
               inflation because they pay back with dollars worth less than those
               borrowed.
           3. Creditors are hurt by inflation as they are paid back in less valuable
               dollars. hose on a fixed income are also hurt by the cheaper dollars. 
           4. Cost-of-Living Increases (COLA's) were instituted in the 1970's
               to negate the severe effects of that period's high inflation.
               For more information visit cost of living from Wikipedia.
           5. Stronger U.S. Dollar-The Winner and Losers
           6. CPI: All Urban Consumer-All Items

           7. Heterogeneous Impacts ofRising Inflation 10/14/16
           8.
 Rising Inflation Doesn’t Impact Everyone the Same
      
D. Affects of Deflation caused by a lack of demand
           1. Slow growth and unemployment, business failures and
               bankruptcies, deleveraging, 
           2. Governments are under pressure to grow their economy

Unit IV. Review  Inflation caused by Demand Pull or excess demand
                             and Cost Push or low supply

Recent Inflation Trends

  V. Are Wages Stagnant?  Real Median Compensation Reveals Answer

    A. Prejudice determines variables measured and mathematical procedures followed.
            1. Example
                a. Median income is lower over time than average income (Adam Sandler brings average up lots)        
                 b. Economists, politicians and business use the procedures that keep constitutes happy.
                 
  1) Hillary Clinton uses median and states low wages must be increased.

                    2) Donald Trump uses average income, states wage high enough, cut spending.
                    3) Colleges advertise average income of those with a bachelors degree
                         when the much lower median income of those with just a bachelors
                        degree is more representative of a college's economic return.
           2.  Median is almost always a better representation for income.   
 

     B. Price Index used dramatically changes result
             1. CPI Adjusted Index-Chart is Red
                 a) Adjusts for seasonable differences
                 b) Under estimates income change source
            2. CPI-U-RS Adjusted-Chart is Blue   
                a) Measures urban purchases which is more realistic but it
                     does not incorporate all possible data on past inflation. 
                 b) For example, no attempt made to reflect any new information
                     on trends in the safety or comfort of air travel for which there
                     is no corresponding methodological change
                    in the CPI-U. bls.gov
            3. PCE A Index-Chart is Green reflects
                consumer substitution" is difficult to implement in real time.
                When oranges are really expensive substitute bananas or
                grapefruit. BLS See CPI-PCE-Comparison
4
            4. The CPI A is like always shopping at the local convenience
                stores and the PCE is like shopping at Wal-Mart for the now
                 popular i-phone. Use CPI  to make people look poor and use
                 PCE assumes economic shoppers.

 

 

Because CPI A is higher, nominal wages are adjusted lowered more. Changing buying habits by price helped 15 points with CPI-U-RS and 29 points with PCE A. While the Federal Reserve considers the PCE A best for measuring the affects of inflation many use the others bring truth to the statement their are liars, darn liars and statisticians. Source   

C. Workers receive more than income: compensation compared to
   productivity determines degree of stagnation.
   
a. Consumer Price Index is used by many to adjust income changes
          over tine for inflation. CPI is for quick, timely use, not for time series
          analysis.
      b. Total Compensation Index-CPI adds fringe
          benefits to represent value received for labor.
      c. TC using Persona Consumption Expenditures Price Index measure
          goods and services targeted toward consumers and is a better guide
          to consumer purchases.
     d. TC Implicit Price Deflator adjusting PCE for
     
changes in consumer behavior in response
         to price changes and change in taste.
Source

Heritage Foundation with data from US government agencies.

Unit V. Review Popular media, out of work politicians and low income earners believe so.
 

Worker Compensation has Increased Even More

Productivity and Compensation Growing Together

Editor's Note: About 20 years ago I read where people concerned over the budget wanted to tie government salaries and SS to a more realistic measure of inflation and I was not surprised when government employees making the decision took about ten years to make the change.

SS still uses a  CPI Index to adjust benefits which gives recipients a bonus. "...many economists, ...conclude that the CPI overstates inflation." "... only some of the upward bias in the CPI have been eliminated."  

"The Chained C-CPI-U is another step toward eliminating the substitution bias
remaining in the CPI-U and CPI-W. Source As of 2005 the BLS reports
"The C-CPI-U to our knowledge currently is not used in any federal legislation
 as an adjustment mechanism." 
   

Recently when the IRS came under fire for going after conservative non profits I thought the reason was they thought liberal would want more government, more employees, more promotions ...

The Good Old Days Were Expensive

1964 TV's Were
Really Big and Really Expensive
and Everyone had a Sunburn


Today's TV Screens are Bigger, Set Is Smaller With a Much Better Picture
and Look at All the Extra Stuff You Get Today!

the-magic-of-the-global-marketplace-and-the-miracle-of-global-manufacturing-christmas-1964-vs-today/

VI. Misery Index and Long-Term Secular Trends
        A. The Misery Index is the sum of the unemployment the inflation rates. 
                 It is a low 8.1% by historical standards with an average of 9.5% since 1948.
 

  

Image result for misery index graphs

 

Inflation Often Detemines Interest Rates

Recent inflation data provided by the Department of Labor and an Interactive graphic at the St. Louis Fed.

Interest Rates Since1800 What's Next?

 

businessinsider.com

Real Per Capita GDP The Best Measure of Our Economic System

Editors Note: Current 2014 economic unhappiness with our economy blames capitalism when distribution of income and solving economic related problems in a democratic republic is the job of the people and their government.

     B. Macroeconomic disasters since 1870
     C. Timeline Collection
       1. America's Great Depression
       2
. Timeline of the Great Depression
       3. GB, France, US and Canada
          4. Long-Term Graphs 

Discretionary Spending is Down Because Voters
Want Economic Growth to go to SS and Medicare

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

People Will Always Think Prices Are Too High

>

 

Stock Prices Continually Up

 

Reason Is Profits Are Continually Up

 

Interest Rates Were Constant Until We Decided to Print Money
 and Borrow to Buy Voters Instead of Party Bosses

 

 

 

VII. Additional Readings
         
    
A. Presidents and the Business Cycle
        B.
Only the Weak Survive import/export imbalances and the business cycle
             Nouriel Roubini, Project Syndicate (hat tip Mark Thoma) 10/15/10
        C.
How the Government Dealt With Past Recessions from the New York Times  
        D. Lessons From the Forgotten Depression 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself
        E.
Business Cycles and Financial Crises is extensive
          F.
What Inflation Means To You: Inside The Consumer Price Index by Doug Short
          G. Tax by inflation  by David John Marotta  3/24/14  of Seeking Alpha
        H. Turning Which orner? 05/11/09 -Tim Duy's Fed Watch
        I.
 The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions: What Post-2008 World Learn from Japan
       J.
The Paradox of Thrift
       
K. What is-the real rate of interest telling us? Financial Times, Mart in Wolf's blog
       
Wrong: Nine Economic Policy Disasters and What We Can Learn From Them

 

 

chart of the day, jobs chart, september 2012

 

Overall employment is surging.

source has much more recent data

usdollar.index.1970.2015

 

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