I. The Business Cycles 5 video
II. History 8 videos
III. Unemployment  6 videos
IV. Inflation

V. Are Wages Stagnant? 1 video
VI. Readings

VII. Visual Learners

FED's Forecasting Game

M. Blyth: Latest The New Normal

Related Quick Studies
US Recessions Chronology

Most Severe US Recessions
The Great Recession 3 p
Great Recession: Historical Perspective
Post WW 2 US Economic Adjustments
Post WW2 International Economic Adjustment
Global Economic Growth and the Rise of Populism
Western Civilization Economic History
History of Stock Bubbles
Chapter 9 Test Review  1/20/20
I. Business Cycle: Fluctuating Business Activity

   A. Fluctuations follows a cycle

    B. Recession: common definition is two consecutive quarters
       of negative Real GDP

    C. See Is GDP a good measure economic success? 

Since 1950 Only the Great Recession Had a Negative Yearly GDP Growth

Output Gap is the difference between
 Actual GDP and Potential GDP. 

C. Causes
1.  Inventory Recession: Excessive optimism causes inventories to over expand and eventually be worked down causing a recession.
     Computers have made easier to track inventory and made this type of recessions less likely. 
2. Endogenous Shock not foreseen by economic models oil embargo recessions of the 1970's of 70's.
3. Rolling Recession Downturn is limited to areas or sectors of the economy. 
    a. Economic activity eventually increases but by then other areas and sectors  are in recession. 
    b. International competition has increased the occurrence of this type of recession as sectors
       such as steel, autos, and recently computers have been affected.
4. Balance sheet recession: private sector debt causes a focus on paying down debt
    which lowers aggregate demand and substantially lowering
economic growth.  
    a. Causes of the Great Recession
    b. An Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007-08
    c. Often require a central bank to act as a Lender of last resort 
5. Innovation Cycle: railroads, computers, bio-technology  cause growth/crash
6. Political Events: wars, international trade
7. Misuse of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: government creates, borrows and or
     spends an incorrect amount of money to moderate economic activity.
     a. Well run economies like Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. are all recently guilty.
     b. Some feel Chain's authoritarian government which has successfully navigated growth for 30 years
         will again steer clear of catastrophe but  Ruchir Sharma's 2016 book The Rise and Fall of Nations:
        Ten Rules of Change in the Post-Crisis World’, thinks they are in Deep Do Do, or D3 for math people.
8. Non-cyclical Fluctuations
    a. Seasonal variation: Christmas buying rush, spring construction 
    b. Long-Term Secular Trends: the expansion or contraction in the
        level of economic activity over a long period of years (the dark ages, the industrial revolution)
       1) Long Waves Theories of Development from Professor Kunter Krumme,
       2) Call this a Recession, At Least It is Not the Dark Ages

3) Generations and The Fourth Turning
9. National Bureau of Economic Research determine recessions
10. David Rosenberg key policy determinates
      a. Real Business Sales
      b. Industrial Production
      c. Organic Real Personal Income: PI  excluding government transfers
      d. Employment
inflation matrix excluding imputed government adjustments
11. Abbott and Costello Explain the Unemployment Situation
12. Action to Stop Recent Recessions, NYT

Economy Strong But Slowing 1/30/20

D. Cycle Theory
1. Monetarism

      2. Keynesian

      3. Real Business cycle

      4. Austrian

      5. Hyman Minsky

GDP is made up of: Y=C+I+G+{\left(X-M\right)} where Y=GDP, C=Consumption, I=Investment, G=Government Spending, (X-M)=Net Exports, X=Exports, M=Imports*.  

GDP in this overview, unless explicitly stated otherwise, refers to real GDP.  Real GDP is in chained 2009 dollars.

length economic expansions


E. Cycle Analysis
1. Competitive Adjustments

2. Good Jobs Gone

3. Severe Recessions

4. Great Recession

5. Great Recession

6. Market Bubbles

Big Cycles Over Last 100 Years



Is Demography the Destiny of Growth?




       f. Recoveries Can Be Slow and Weak

Historical Length of Recoveries - Click to enlarge

chart-book-the-legacy-of-the-great-recession source=CBPP



See Our Studies
The Financial Crisis
Most Severe US Recessions
2015 Political Economy Controversies
Action to Stop Recent Recessions, NYT
Bubbles Credit And Their Consequences FED
Democratic Capitalism vs. Capitalistic Democracy 

Editor's Note: The ten year recovery was the 1990s. The Vietnam expansion of the 1960s. The longest was after WW2 and included the Korean War. Does anyone want to invade Clinton or Trump to increase and extend current recovery by Syria plus bringing back the draft?


G. Predicting Recessions

1. Leading Indicators of Recession



Understanding Contrary Indicators  

3. Recessions Using Excel Charts

Source econintersect.com:Leading Economic Index Sharply Improves


Soft Data Much Brighter Economic Outlook vs. Hard Data


Leading Indicators Links

Economic Forecast Outlook Barely Positive is extensive with many graphs 2/16
Leading Economic Indicators 2007/01/leading-economic
Index of Leading Indicators – Premature to Rule out Recession  5 19, 08
LEI and KRWI - It's Different This Time? P. Kasriel Northern Trust, 4/21/07
Leading indicators a short history of the numbers that rule our world 2/14 NYT
The Evolution Of Economic Indicators





        Current Conditions
U.S. Fiscal Policy Reality and Outlook/ 5/16 and Current Business-Cycle Conditions
           2. Why The Great Recession yields a slow recovery          
           3. 20th Century U.S. Decade Ranking indicate US doing well.
           4. The Big 4 Economic Indicators Since the Bottom
           5. The Story of the American Recovery in 15 charts
           6. Secular Stagnation
           7. Learning from the Great Recession
               a. Lessons Ignored from the 1930's 23 min video
               b. Harsh Lessons Historical
               c. Have Ghosts of 1937 Returned to Haunt Us?            
          8. Credit and crises and the economic shocks of 2016 podcast
9. Econ Talk Podcast Recession, Stagnation, and Monetary Policy EconTalk Podcast
        10. The Great Stagnation by en  Video
Mark Blyth: After the Crisis: Telling Forest from Trees video
12. Bigger-raises-might-be-coming-in-2018 1/8/18
13. What Will Finally Lift Wages for Middle Earners  28/8

Unit I. Review peak economic activity, recession, recovery, expansion

Economic Questions: 
Preface: Do Economists Lie?

For Trump
1. Increase Economies Growth 
2. Tax Cuts Success?
3. Inflation's Back, Trouble Ahead?  
4. Stocks Too High?  
Recession Coming?

1. Will Inflation/Growth Tame Deficits 
2. Will Debt End Capitalism 
3. Job Loss to AI 
4. Dollar Privilege Continuation 
5. Disposition-Illegal Immigrants
6. Income Inequality Affecting Growth   
7. Will Stagnate Income Continue
8. Russia/China U.S. Adversaries


II. History of the Business Cycle




A. Overview
1 Most Severe US Recessions
         2. A Brief History of U S Banking will provide examples of what has
             caused the business cycle in the United States.
         3. The Financial Swindle-of-All-Time
         4. The first financial panic
             a. Causes of the 1837 Panic
             b. Panic of 1837
             c. Effects of Panic of 1837
         5. S&P earnings cycles
             a. Part 1: 1871 - 1900,  Source
             b. rt-2-1900- 1925
        6. Boettke podcast on the Austrian Hemline Index and Predictions
        7. Cycles Lists
            a. List of U.S. Recessions
            b. Business Cycle data since 1854 from NBER

       Top 10 Worldwide 20th Century Financial Crises 
       10. The Panic of 1907: The fourth so-called ”panic” in 34 years.
         9. The Mexican Peso Crisis 1994 aka “The December Mistake” Punta!
         8. Argentine economic crisis - 1999 If you have no money, is it a good idea to print  more?
         7. German hyperinflation - 1918-24 If you have to print a 1,000-billion Mark note, you probably have too much inflation.
         6. Souk Al-Manakh - 1982 Try not to use post dated to buy stocks
         5. Black Monday - 1987 Can we call a 23% drop in a single day a black swan?
         4. Russian financial crisis - 1998 devaluation of the ruble and cancellation of debt is never good for a local stock market.
         3. East Asian financial crisis - 1997 aka the Asian Contagion
         2. Black Tuesday - 1929 — Really? One day, and not the entire Great Depression?
         1. 1973 Oil Crisis — Big energy price increases cause recessions

B. The Long Depression And Panic Of 1873

C. Great Depression by Robert J. Samuelson,
1. Amity Shales on the Great Depression 
EconTalk, Russ Roberts interviews Amity Shlaes, Bloomberg
               columnist and visiting senior fellow at the Council on Foreign
               Relations. She talks about her new book, The Forgotten Man:
               A New History of the Great Depression
. Podcast discusses
               Herbert Hoover, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the economics of
              The Great Depression, On EconLog and in his column at TCS
               Daily, Arnold Kling also added insight to Shlaes's observations
           3. Did France Cause the Great Depression
           4. What Caused the Recession of 1937-38?
5. The Battle of Smoot-Hawley The Economist 12/18/08
           6. Understanding the Great Depression 9 min video
 D. Post WW 2 Business Cycles

          1. Post WW2 International Economic Competitive Adjustment
              a. Black Monday - Part 1 - Nightly Business Report Oct.19, 1987 11 min video
b. Black Monday - Part 2 - Nightly Business Report Oct.19, 1987 10 min video
c. Black Monday - Part 3 - Nightly Business Report Oct.19, 1987 7 min video
              d. The Great Recession
              e. Financial Crisis of 2007-10 Course
U.S. Normality Changes with 7 Competitive Adjustments 1945-2015

         E. Recession of 2007 Articles
1. Great Recession reviewed in a paragraph.
2. A Business Cycle Ends, U.S. Workers Lose Ground slide show reviews
the latest business expansion ending in early 2008. 
3. On the Economy CNBC Video, 4/1008 An overview of the economy
                 with Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning of PIMCO
4. Fed Watch: Turning Which Corner? 05//09
5. Older Americans Made Recession Look Better April 2010, by
M. Kudlyak, D. Reilly and S. Slivinski, FED Richmond. 
6. Five ways deflation has already takenhold is a concise forty year review
                 of recent cycles From renown economist G Shilling from Bloomberg.com 
7. Great American Economic Growth Myth
8. The Week Inequality Debt And Credit Stagnation
9. Great Moderation preceded the Great Recession
F. Bubbles Credit And Their Consequences FED looks into predicting bubbles
         G. Videos and graphs
1. American-Experience 29 Crash
2. South Sea Bubble of 1720 video
              3. Tulip mania: the classic story of a Dutch financial bubble  
4. Great Recession Slow Recovery Videos
Episode 1  2
  H. Economic Cycles Before the Fed | Thomas E Woods, Jr. Austrian School


One-Page US Economic History

Most Severe Recessions 2p

Recent Decades Ranked by Problems 2p

World Changed and Good Jobs Disappeared

Great Recession or 3p

History of US Banking 2p
Exorbitant Dollar Privilege 1p

Capitalism Not to Blame for Middle-Class Plight

Why Trump-Sanders Phenomenon Signals an Oligarchy
 on the Brink of a Civilization-Threatening Collapse

20th Century Decade Evaluation 10p

Building America's Democratic
Federalist Republic

1. The Early Colonial Period

2. Determining Political Power
and "We the People"

3. Increasing We" of "We the People"

4. Thomas Jefferson
Leader of the Opposition

5. Constitutional History of Our
Democratic Federalist Republic



Economic Normality Changed Seven Times 1945-2015
1. Rising Income
2. Foreign Competition Began 1970's Wage Stagnation
3. 1980's Bring Less Financial Regulation, Slow Wage Growth
4. U.S. Financial Bailouts and Economic Recovery
5. Poverty Stuck at 15% Since 1984
6. Profit Growth Beats Wage Growth in New Century

7. Wellbeing Continuing Growing

Great Recession on top of Two Bush Wars
and Medicare Part D Caused Problems

1 of 10 scary-2017 Charts


Recovering from Great Recession Videos  

Video 1 establishes recovery actually has been weak, even compared to other
recoveries following deep recessions and financial crises.

Video 2 examines the possible causes of the weakness.

Video 3 concentrates on in my view, is the main cause—government economic policy.

Sources Econ 1 Blog and
First Principles: 5 Keys to Restoring  America Prosperity

III. Unemployment



  For Visual Learners      Four Videos Structural and Frictional  Cyclical   Natural    Generation Jobless 


      B. Key Unemployment Topics
          1. Natural unemployment rate (frictional + structural
              unemployment) is usually 4-6% of the labor force 
              See Unemployment’s Steady Fall Could Signal Trouble—or a Broader Structural Shift 8/27/17
           2. Full employment is when cyclical unemployment equals zero 
           3. Okun's Law: a 1% increase in cyclical unemployment (actual
                rate - natural rate) will cause  a 2.0% annual drop in GNP.
               a. GNP change = (2.0) (unemployment rate change)
               b. If unemployment goes up 2% points as it did in the 1990-91
                   recession then the drop in GNP would be 2.0 X 2% or 4%.
               c. Approximate first year (2009) cost of the Great Recession 
                  (3.5% X $14,000,000,000,000) /300,000,000 =
   d. Okun's Law and the Great Recession 3/28/12
               e. Okun's Law, Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis
          4. Labor Force Participation Rate from The Big Picture blog.
          5. Noneconomic costs of unemployment include loss of skills,
              &n this problem in late 2012)
          6. Discouraged workers leaving the workforce lowers
              unemployment. first 2 charts courtesy of Gluskin Shef
        7. Q&A: Unemployment Extension WSJ, 11/18/10
          8. Gallup has Higher Unemployment and Underemployment
              than the government. 04/01/11
          9. How The Government Manipulates Unemployment Statistics  
              D. R. Amerman  3/12
       10. 2 Videos on negative effects of minimum wage on employment
  C. Readings

Creating Jobs and Economic Security 3/27/18       
        2. Economics of
Minimum Wage
        3. New Study Proves Seattle's High MW Punishes Poor
Sticky Wages Hold Back Job Growth WSJ, 11/12/10
        5. Exploring Different Unemploymnet Risks

        6. Employment Multipliers-US

 Unit III. Review Unemployment causes frication within employment process, structure problems, cycle effects



More Unemployment Data

"What is Unemployment

To answer this question first requires a few definitions. A person is considered unemployed if he or she is actively seeking work and willing to take work here and now. It is therefore not sufficient to simply not be working. But this definition of unemployment does necessarily define (1) whether someone who is underemployed should be counted as well or (2) how intensely someone must search for a job to qualify as unemployed. For this reason, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides different unemployment rates, graphed above. These are commonly called U-1 through U-6:

  • U-1 counts only those who have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks, which was traditionally a little longer than the average duration of an unemployment spell. This is considered to exclude short-term unemployment.
  • U-2 counts those who are unemployed because they have lost a job or completed a temporary job—in other words, workers in a precarious situation in the labor market, as they are more likely to find an unstable or unsatisfying job.
  • U-3 is the headline unemployment rate generally reported in the media: People who are able to work, ready to work, and have looked for work in the past four weeks. This corresponds the most closely to the definition of unemployment we started with.
  • U-4 is U-3 plus those who would like to work but have stopped looking—the so-called discouraged workers—because they believe there are no jobs for them.
  • U-5 is U-4 plus those who are marginally attached to the labor market who, for any reason, are no longer searching for work but may still work.
  • U-6 is U-5 plus those who are working part-time but would prefer to work full-time.

These various interpretations of unemployment allow us to have a better understanding of the status on the labor market. But one may still have some misgivings about them. For example, the higher-numbered definitions give equal weight to different classes of unemployed workers. For example, should a person qualifying for U-1 count as much as a person qualifying only for U-5 and U-6 when evaluating the health of the labor market? To address this question, there is the Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange index that creates a weighted sum of the different categories. The goal is to evaluate the underutilization of labor in the economy. This index (it is available with and without the part-time workers from U-6) is plotted below along with the popular U-3."

Raising the minimum wage and expanding the earned-income tax credit can reduce deaths of despair among the working class. "A 10% increase in the minimum wage reduces non-drug suicides among adults with high school or less by 3.6%; a 10% increase in the EITC reduces suicides among this group by 5.5%. ... Our estimates suggest that increasing both the minimum wage and the EITC by 10% would likely prevent a combined total of around 1,230 suicides each year," William Dow, Anna Godøy, Christopher Lowenstein and Michael Reich write in a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper.

Great Recession Was Not So Great

Unemployment Rate 



Great Recession: Deep, Quick and Slow Recovery
 Which Became the Longest in History














2019 Great Recession Chartbook

Are States Ready for the Pandemic?

Bad But Getting Better



And Better

Editors Note: The calamity of the1930 resulted in federal programs like
 food stamps, Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security and TANF to help the unemployed.


Chart 2: Unemployment Rate by Type of Previous Job


Editors Note: The unemployment rate was high in 2011, 2012 and early 2013. But, calling it a Great Recession compared to the 1970's and early 1980's which also had inflation which really  hurt those on fixed incomes and those with non real estate assets is an exaggeration. Especially since the earlier period had two periods of high  unemployment and ten plus years of slow growth might. wikipedia be a bit of a stretch?  See 16) Stagflation and the Rise of Supply-Side Economics

NYT 5/28/12

North-Caroling crushes unemployed 12/17/13
Arguing Over Extending Unemployment Benefits  12/14/13


IV. Inflation
        A.  Calculating Inflation: What does a basket of goods cost?
             1. An increase in prices is measured by a price index
                 a. Consumer Price Index, CPI
                 b. Producer Price Index, PPI
             2. The PPI measures the change in wholesale priced goods..
             3. The PPI is a leading indicator for CPI as wholesalers can usually
                 pass price changes on to retailers  who pass them to consumer.
                 a. Recent increases in foreign competition made passing
                     price increases on more difficult.
                 b. The internet had the same kind of affect in the late 1990's.
             4. Calculating  inflationary rate for a year when a basket of consumer 
                 goods increase from $400 to $420 would be calculated as follows.

             5. Chained Consumer Price Index allows basked of goods to
                  change, if oranges are expensive, buy bananas
                 a. What if chained cpi had been used to calculate COLA?
                 b.  CPI-urban since 1913 check out the 70'
            6. Some question government procedures when calculating 
                inflation and  economic growth.
                 a. Shadow Government Statistics  
                 b. Grossly Distorted Procedures
is a way of accounting for the changing product quality
                    when calculating price movements. For example, today's
                    computers are 2 to 3 times faster and have more
                    memory than models produced just a few years ago.
                    If someone can buy a better computer today than last
                    year for the 0same price, have not prices really fallen?
                    Here is another example. Is it realistic to compare the
                    price of a 1955 Chevy with the price of a 2005 Toyota
                    with air conditioning, DVD 
                    player, anti-lock breaks, seat belts, air bags, side air
                    bags, power steering, power brakes, etc See
                   Price Hedonics: A Critical Review and

                   A Note on the Impact of Hedonics and Computers on Real GDP.
7.  Financial Sense Online - The Core Rate
                  a. Monthly Labor Review
                     counters the Shadow Government Statistics
                     arguments concerning inflation calculations          
                  b. An-analysis-of-government-statistics introduction-and-the-cpi 
        B. Causes of Inflation
             1. Demand-pull inflation
                 a. Increases in C + I + G + XN will cause GDP to increase.
                 b. As the economy nears full employment, the prosperity 
                     caused by high employment
                     increases demand and put upward pressure on prices.
                 c. When this happens, the economy is said to be overheated.
             2. Cost-Push Inflation
                 a. As the economy approaches full employment factor resources 
                     become scarce allowing their owners to increase prices.
                 b. Supply-side shocks can cause high resource prices even if 
                     demand for resources is low, i.e., OPEC's two oil embargoes 
                     of the 1970's
A Brief History of U S dollar Debasement?
        C. Economic Effect of Inflation
            1. Both income and resource allocations are affected by inflation 
                as the market tries to adjust to the loss in value caused by inflation.
                a. High gas prices in the 1970's caused a switch to small cars and
                    many people bought wood stoves.
                b. Low gas prices in the 1990's made RV's less expensive to run.
            2. Debtors (homeowners, businesses, government) are helped by high
                inflation because they pay back with dollars worth less than those
            3. Creditors are hurt by inflation as they are paid back in less valuable
                dollars. hose on a fixed income are also hurt by the cheaper dollars. 
            4. Cost-of-Living Increases (COLA's) were instituted in the 1970's
                to negate the severe effects of that period's high inflation.
                For more information visit cost of living from Wikipedia.
            5. Stronger U.S. Dollar-The Winner and Losers
            6. CPI: All Urban Consumer-All Items

            7. Heterogeneous Impacts of Rising Inflation 10/14/16
 Rising Inflation Doesn’t Impact Everyone the Same
D. Affects of Deflation caused by a lack of demand
           1. Slow growth and unemployment, business failures and
               bankruptcies, deleveraging, 
           2. Governments are under pressure to grow their economy
      E. History
          1. Buying-Power of U.S.  Dollar visualizes 100 years of inflation
          2. A Short History of Prices, Inflation since the Founding of the U.S.
          3. A Short History of Prices Inflation Since 1790

Unit IV. Review  Inflation caused by Demand Pull or
excess demand and Cost Push or low supply


Short   See http://0Trends



Formed in 1913, the Federal Reserve took a while to learn its job.




Dollar Buys Less on World Markets


Figures 1 and 2



Some Feel Inflation Overstated
Because Quality Increases
 Difficult to Measure.

V. Are Wages Stagnant?  Real Median Compensation Reveals Answer









CPI results in lower wage growth than PCE
Too many Use the CPI to show low wage growth
 to get elected, get funding for research

50 years ago i learn CPI was used to adjust government waged to over inflation. Change It took 10 years. Still waiting for SS to change.

          B. Price Index used dramatically
                 1 . CPI Adjusted Index-Chart is Red
              a) Adjusts for seasonable differences
              b) Under estimates income change source
              c) Used by people wanting quickly updated data
Used to grow support for government programs
          2. CPI-U-RS Adjusted-Chart is Blue   
              a) Measures urban purchases which is more realistic
              b) It does not incorporate all possible data on past inflation. 
              c) For example, no attempt made to reflect any new information
                 on trends in the safety or comfort of air travel for which there

                 is no corresponding methodological change in the CPI-U. bls.gov
          3. PCE A Index-Chart is Green reflects "consumer substitution" is difficult
              to implement in real time.
              a) Measures buying of economic shoppers 
              b. When oranges are really expensive substitute bananas or grapefruit.
                 1. BLS examples
                 3. CPI A is like always shopping at the local convenience stores
                 4. PCE is like shopping at Wal-Mart, local sales and
            Internet for the now  popular as is an i-phone.
Problems With Economic Measurements Over Time 5 min video


The CPI-U-RS index allows consumers to changing buying habits to find lower prices. This increased wages by 15 points with  and 29 points with PCE A.

While the Federal Reserve considers the PCE A the best for measuring the affects of inflation, many use the others bringing truth to the statement their are liars, darn liars and statisticians. Editor's Note: This paper by Bruce Sacerdote is worth noting:

   C. Workers receive more than income: compensation compared to
        productivity determines degree of stagnation.
        a. Consumer Price Index is used by many to adjust income changes over-
            time for inflation. CPI is for quick, timely use, not for time series analysis.
        b. Total Compensation Index-CPI adds fringe
            benefits to represent value received for labor.
        c. TC using Persona Consumption Expenditures Price Index measure
            goods and services targeted toward consumers and is a better guide
            to consumer purchases.
        d. TC Implicit Price Deflator adjusting PCE for
changes in consumer behavior in response
            to price changes and change in taste.
Source Heritage
            Foundation with data from US government agencies.
Measuring Worth explores adjusting trend data for inflation

     Unit V. Review
Popular media, out of work politicians and low income earners believe so.

Worker Compensation has Increased Even More

Productivity and Compensation Growing Together

D. Income inequality in the United States: it’s flatter than you probably realize (Phillip W. Magness)  Magness reviews distortions introduced in Piketty-Saez analyses by incorrect treatment of U.S. tax laws in their calculations.  Magness has constructed what he says is a corrected income distribution curve for the U.S.  Econintersect:  Of course, none of this impacts wealth distribution which also has gone through extreme swings.





Editor's Note: About 20 years ago I read where people concerned over the budget wanted to tie government salaries and SS to a more realistic measure of inflation and I was not surprised when government employees making the decision took about ten years to make the change.

SS still uses a  CPI Index to adjust benefits which gives recipients a bonus. "...many economists, ...conclude that the CPI overstates inflation." "... only some of the upward bias in the CPI have been eliminated."  

"The Chained C-CPI-U is another step toward eliminating the substitution bias
remaining in the CPI-U and CPI-W. Source As of 2005 the BLS reports
"The C-CPI-U to our knowledge currently is not used in any federal legislation
 as an adjustment mechanism." 




Recently when the IRS came under fire for going after conservative non profits I thought the reason was they thought liberal would want more government, more employees, more promotions ...



The Good Old Days Were Expensive

1964 TV's Were
Really Big and Really Expensive
and Everyone had a Sunburn

Today's TV Screens are Bigger, Set Is Smaller With a Much Better Picture
and Look at All the Extra Stuff You Get Today!


VI. Misery Index and Long-Term Secular Trends
        A. The Misery Index is the sum of the unemployment the inflation rates. 
                 It is a low 8.1% by historical standards with an average of 9.5% since 1948.


Image result for misery index graphs


Inflation Often Determines Interest Rates

Recent inflation data provided by the Department of Labor and an Interactive graphic at the St. Louis Fed.

Interest Rates Since1800 What's Next?


Source nice graph useless analysis


Real Per Capita GDP The Best Measure of Our Economic System

Editors Note: Current 2014 economic unhappiness with our economy blames capitalism when distribution of income and solving economic related problems in a democratic republic is the job of the people and their government.

     B. Macroeconomic disasters since 1870
     C. Timeline Collection
       1. America's Great Depression
. Timeline of the Great Depression
       3. GB, France, US and Canada
          4. Long-Term Graphs 

Discretionary Spending is Down Because Voters
Want Economic Growth to go to SS and Medicare











People Will Always Think Prices Are Too High



Stock Prices Continually Up


Reason Is Profits Are Continually Up


Interest Rates Were Constant Until Because We Print Money
 and Borrow to Buy Voters Instead of Party Bosses
A Flat World Stopped This and Profits Beat Wages


Bubbles Continue to Hurt





VII. Additional Readings
A. Presidents and the Business Cycle
Only the Weak Survive import/export imbalances and the business cycle
             Nouriel Roubini, Project Syndicate (hat tip Mark Thoma) 10/15/10
How the Government Dealt With Past Recessions from the New York Times  
        D. Lessons From the Forgotten Depression 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself
Business Cycles and Financial Crises is extensive
What Inflation Means To You: Inside The Consumer Price Index by Doug Short
          G. Tax by inflation  by David John Marotta  3/24/14  of Seeking Alpha
        H. Turning Which corner? 05/11/09 -Tim Duy's Fed Watch
 The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions: What Post-2008 World Learn from Japan
The Paradox of Thrift
K. What is-the real rate of interest telling us? Financial Times, Mart in Wolf's blog
Wrong: Nine Economic Policy Disasters and What We Can Learn From Them

chart of the day, jobs chart, september 2012

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Chapter 9 Homework Questions Table of Contents

For Visual Learners




Recessions Shorter, Expansion Longer





Overall employment is surging.




source has much more recent data



Stock Prices

ritholtz.com  longest-bull-markets-modern-era/


Government Support Is Everywhere




What is a Commodity Super Cycle?