A PERT Analysis of Our Educational System
March 14, 2005
A management system entitled Program Evaluation and Review
Techniques, PERT for short, was used to build a
Polaris submarine quickly
and get the United States to the moon and back within 10 years. The
system required a
specific description and requirement date for an
accomplishment. This accomplished was then broken into
manageable subsets. A
time line was then created to complete each subset.
Our accomplishment will be Every Child
Employable rather than No Child Left Behind. Our educational system must
prepare students for available jobs. Available
jobs equals replacement jobs coming into existence as workers leave
the labor force
plus newly created jobs. Newly created jobs will be
our measure because they tend to require more
education. Relevant data is provided by the U.S. Department of Labor.
By 2008, Occupation
Outlook Quarterly Fall of 2000, page 7 reports
that 23.8% of the jobs will
require a four-year
bachelor's degree or higher and 78.8% will require less. Using PERT analysis and working
one step back, specific
educational subsets for each education level are needed.
Occupational Employment Projections to 2012
has this
information. We will look at the educational
requirements for the 30 largest new job growth occupations.
| Educational Requirements of Largest Growth Occupations1 2002-2012 (In thousands) | ||||||||
| Newly
Created Jobs Requiring Less-Than a College Degree |
New Created
Jobs Requiring College Degree or Higher |
|||||||
| Top 30 occupations by largest growth | Short Term O.J.T.2 | Medium Term O.J.T. |
Work Exp. |
A.D. | B.D. | B.D or more + EXP. | D.D. | Total New Jobs |
|
Totals |
5,045 | 1,498 | 163 | 623 | 1,071 |
552 |
603 |
9,555 |
| Percent of Total | 52.8% | .15.7% | 01.7% | 6.5% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 100% |
| Sub Totals | 70.2% | 29.8% 3 | 100% | |||||
|
1Visit 1998-2008
Job Growth by Required Education and Occupations
for an analysis of specific occupations. |
||||||||
This analysis seems to contradict the politically correct notion
that our educational system should prepare most students
for college. This belief exists because
academics and media often report that 49.9% of the fastest growing
occupations
will require a bachelor's degree or higher. But the fastest growth
occupations employment is one third that of the largest
growth occupations. In
addition, replacement jobs require less education than new growth occupation
jobs.
|
Educational Requirements of Fastest Growing Occupations 2002-2012 (In thousands) |
||||||||
|
Newly Created Jobs Requiring Less-Than a College Degree |
Newly Created Jobs Requiring |
|||||||
| Top 30 occupations by rate of growth |
Short Term O.J.T. |
Medium Term O.J.T. |
Work Exp. |
A.D. |
B.D. |
B.D. or more + EXP. |
D.D. |
Total New Jobs |
| Totals | 546 | 493 |
80 |
459 |
818 | 151 | 603 | 3,150 |
| Percent | 17.3% | 15.7% |
2.5% |
14.6% | 26.0% |
4.8% |
19.1% |
100% |
| Sub Totals |
50.1% |
49.9% |
100% |
|||||
This data is severely affected by 603,000 doctorate degree jobs predicted because
so many people are expected to attend
college and will require teachers.
Predictions do not always
come true. Systems Analyst ranked first in the
1998-2008
projection with an expected increase of 577,000 jobs. By the 2002-2012 report, their rank had dropped to 25 with an
increase of only
184,000 jobs.
The number of people receiving a bachelor's degree is substantially larger than the number of jobs
requiring a bachelor's
degree. The Department of
Labor Fall 2000 Occupational Outlook Quarterly
page 9 reports a
college graduates over
supply of 1,900,000 for
1988-1998 and approximately
900,000 for 1998-2008. The two decade over supply total is almost
three million
graduates. Not
All College Majors Are Created Equal has
an analysis by major of the likelihood of a college
graduate having a college level job.
Data required for the next step in this PERT analysis, specific
occupation growth, is provided at
1998-2008
Job Growth by Required Education and Occupations.
Question: If only 23.8% of the jobs in
2012 will require a college degree and at most, 29.8% of the new jobs will
require a
college degree, why are we requiring all students to study algebra?
For the answer, read part 2 of this series.
What these experts think of our educational system.
Peter F. Drucker, Clark Professor of
Social Science at Claremont Graduate School, California
and considered by some “the founding father of the science of management (LA Times)”
Lester C. Thurow, former Dean
of the MIT Sloan School of Management
Economists Frederic L. Pryor of
Swarthmore College and David L. Schaffer of
the University
of Wisconsin at Eau Clair
Paul Krugman, the MIT Ford
International Professor of Economics
Kevin J. Clancy, chairman and CEO of Copernicus,
a global marketing consulting research firm
Walter
Antoniotti owner
of 21st
Century Learning Products and author of this editorial