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Chapter 9 The Business Cycle Please Blog Friends About This Free Library Using Telling Teachers about our free learning materials and http://www.textbooksfree.org/ might lower the cost of textbooks. When printing these three pages, use portrait at 70% with minimum margins |
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I. Business cycles
describe
the fluctuations in business
activity over time. A. Recession: commonly accepted definition is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in Real GDP.The (F)utility of GDP? argues that his is not a good definition.-The Becker-Posner Blog 12/17/09 B. Why business activity fluctuates 1. Inventory Recession: Excessive optimism causes inventories to over expand and eventually they must be worked down causing a recession. Computers have made easier to track inventory and made this type of recessions less likely. 2. Rolling Recessions: Economic downturn is limited to areas or sectors of the economy. a. Economic activity eventually increases but by then other areas and sectors are in recession. b. International competition has increased the occurrence of this type of recession as sectors such as steel, autos, and recently computers have been affected. 3. Innovation Cycle: railroads, computers, bio-technology 4. Political Events: wars, international trade 5. Misuse of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: government creates and/or borrows an incorrect amount of money 6. Non-cyclical Fluctuations a. Seasonal variation: Christmas buying rush, spring construction b. Long-Term Secular Trends: the expansion or contraction in the level of economic activity over a long period of years (the dark ages, the industrial revolution) For more visit 1) Long Waves Theories of Development from the Kunter Krumme, U. of Washington. 2) Call this a Recession, At Least It is Not the Drk Ages By Bryan Ward-Perkins 12/22/09 FT.com 7. Durable Goods have a long useful life (houses, equipment, etc.) Sale of durable goods contract substantially during a recession as their purchase may be easily postponed. For how other goods are affected visit U.S. Economic Cycles |
C. Current Conditions 1. Current Business-Cycle Conditions from American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) 2. Chance of a Double Dip Video from Business News Network 6/16/10 D. A Brief History of U S Banking Problems will provide examples of what has caused the business cycle in the United States. E. Leading, coincidental, and lagging indicators are measures such as the unemployment rate which respectively change before, with or after general economic activity. Economists use to predict future economic activity.
Interesting Links Leading Indicators
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F. History 1. Visit Business Cycle data since 1854 from the National Bureau of Economic Research. 3. Boettke podcast on the Austrian Austrian Perspective on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy 4. Great Depression by Robert J. Samuelson, the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics a. Amity Shales on the Great Depression, On EconTalk, Russ Roberts interviews Amity Shlaes, Bloomberg columnist and visiting senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. She talks about her new book, The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression. The podcast discusses Herbert Hoover, F. D.R., the economics of the New Deal and the class warfare of the 1930s b. The Great Depression, On EconLog and in his column at TCS Daily, Arnold Kling also focuses on some of Shlaes's observations adding thoughtful insights. 5. Recession of 2007 a. Slide Show: A Business Cycle Ends, and Many U.S. Workers Lose Ground reviews the latest business expansion ending in early 2008. Business Week b. On the Economy CNBC Video, April 10., 2008v An overview of the economy with Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, and Mohamed El-Erian, co-CEO of PIMCO c. Fed Watch: Turning Which Corner? 05/11/09 by Tim Duy d. Older Americans Made the Recession Look Better (Excerpts) April 2010, by Marianna Kudlyak, Devin Reilly and Stephen Slivinski of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. |
Top 10 Financial Crises
10. Interesting Video American-Experience Crash of 1929 Series South Sea Bubble of 1720
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II. Three types of unemployment A. Frictional is caused by time lags in the operation of labor markets. 1. Workers are between employment because they have been fired, are changing careers, are seasonal workers, have been temporarily laid off, etc. 2. Short-term, inevitable, temporary, and is eliminated with time. B. Structural is caused by changes in consumer demand and technology. 1. Result is an oversupply of workers with a particular skill. 2. This unemployment is often concentrated in a particular area, associated with a particular industry, and is often permanent. 3. Increased economic activity will not decrease this type of unemployment as training and/or relocation are required. 4. Happened in the 1970's and early 1980's as consumers decided to buy small foreign built cars and other products produced in the Rust Belt. Now it is happening because NAFTA and foreign competition are causing industries to restructuring is needed because of foreign competition. C. Types of Unemployment&Natural Rate of Unemployment ACDC Economics Video D. Cyclical 1. Caused by a lack of total demand at the end of an economic expansion 2. Temporary 3. Recession of the early 1990's was due to a drop in demand caused by a debt buildup in the 1980's by individuals, businesses, and the federal government. Apprehension caused by high structural unemployment of both blue and white collar workers slowed the recovery. 4. Recession of 2001 was caused by debt build up of individuals resulting from the long period of prosperity and the stock market bubble, excess capital investment caused by Y2K and internet optimism, and September 11. 5. Great Recession of 2008-09 was caused by the end of an excessive building boom compounded by a banking crisis and stock market crisis. 6. Broad Unemployment Across the U.S. Interactive map from the July 14, 2009 NYT. 7. Unemployment: The Harder You Look, The Uglier It Appears 09/02/09 8. Long Term Unemployment Rate has almost doubled . 9/9/09 9. Sticky Wages Hold Back Job Growth WSJ, 11/12/10 |
III. Other unemployment topics A. Natural unemployment (frictional + structural unemployment) is usually 4% to 6% of the labor force B. Full employment is when cyclical unemployment equals zero C. Okun's Law: a 1% increase in cyclical unemployment will cause a 2.5% annual drop in GNP. 1. GNP change = 2.5 (unemployment rate change) 2. If unemployment goes up 2% as it did in the 1990-91 recession then the drop in GNP would be 2.5 X 2% or 5%. 3. Cost to a 6 trillion dollar economy of 250 million people (5% X $6,000,000,000,000) / 250,000,000 = $1200/person/year. D. Labor Force Participation Rate from The Big Picture blog. E. Noneconomic costs of unemployment include loss of skills, self- esteem, and social-political unrest. F. Discouraged workers leaving the workforce lowers unemployment. G. Q&A: Unemployment Extension WSJ, 11/18/10
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IV. Inflation
V. Causes of inflation |
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1980 |
1990 |
1990 Production |
VII.
Some question government procedures when
calculating inflation and economic Turning Which Corner? 05/11/09 -Tim Duy's Fed Watch |
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Production |
Q |
P |
T |
Q |
P |
T |
1990 Q |
1980 P |
T |
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Shirts |
1 |
10 |
10 |
2 |
20 |
40 |
2 |
10 |
20 |
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Movies |
2 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
15 |
3 |
3 |
9 |
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GDP |
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16 |
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55 |
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29 |
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Note : Output more than tripled in "nominal" terms but in real terms output increased by 81.25% (29-16)/16 |
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