So Far So Good
Chapter 15 Monetary Policy
Demand for Money
I. The Demand for Money
1-Page Political Economy Stuff
E. Affecting the non-investment components of aggregate demand
Average ratio to GDP of unsecured and
Ratio of total mortgages to total value of U.S. housing stock
Source: Jordà, Schularick, and Taylor (2016).
III. Types of Monetary Controls
A. Quantitative affect the money supply.
1. Required Reserve Ratio
a. Lowering the reserve ratio creates excess reserves which banks may loan
as newly created money. This is expansionary.
b. Raising the reserve ratio eliminates excess reserve so banks can not renew
loans removing money and causing a contraction.
2. Open-market operations
a. Buying and selling of U.S. government bonds by the Federal Reserve from banks
or in the open market to change excess reserves thus affecting the supply of M1
and interest rates is the primary tool.
b. Buying bonds is expansionary.
1) When buying from banks, the Federal Reserve pays with reserves providing
excess reserves banks can loan as demand deposits.
2) When buying in the open market, increased demand from the Federal Reserve
pushes up prices sellers receive, lowering the effective interest sellers pay.
c. Selling bonds contracts the economy.
d. Review of Valuing bonds
1) Suppose you buy a twenty year, $10,000 bond paying 5% per year at face value
of $10,000. Face value is called par value.
a) A few years go by and you need money and one choice is to sell the bond.
b) If interest rates on this type bond have gone down, people will be very anxious
to buy, demand, will be high pushing price up and your will receive more than
c) If rate shave gone down, no one will give you $10,000, demand will be low,
so if you need the money, you will sell for less, below par.
d) You can hold for twenty years and get par and get the money some where else.
2) Therefore, interest rates and bond values (prices) go in the opposite direction,
if interest rates down, old bond price up because they are at the old higher rate.
3) This is called the interest rate risk for bonds. Other risks have to do with issuer
default and monetary inflation.
e. Federal Open Market Committee minutes make interesting reading.
f. It is the most powerful of the four tools.
g. Historical Note on lender of last resort type actions before there was a central
bank began in response to the Panic of 1837 (U.S. first great depression. source
1. "The Secretary of the Treasury, Salmon P. Chase, bought $13.5 million in
National 5-20 bonds, but this tepid government response did little
to calm the markets (Juglar 95)." Tepid response would be used to describe
FED actions during Great Recession.
2. "The New York Clearing House had two tools at its disposal for combating
banking panics and liquidity crises, in the form of loan certificates and reserve pooling."
3. Discount rate
a. This is the rate charged by the Federal Reserve for loans to member banks.
b. It strongly affects the prime interest rate paid by a bank's best customers.
1) Lower the rate to expand economy as interest rates decrease.
2) Raise the rate to contract economy as interest rates increase.
3) Another important interest rate is the federal funds rate which is the rate at which
banks loan funds to each other.
4. Term Auction Facility
a. Initiated in 2007, it allows banks to add to their reserves at low rates.
b Done to increase bank liquidity which was low because of a loss in reserve
caused by a housing crisis.
B. Qualitative controls affect the actions of market participants.
1. Moral suasion or jawboning
a. This social pressure by influential people to encourage specific people to act in the
b. It is used to influence public opinion and political attitudes.
c. An example is when the Chairman of Board of Governors makes his
Semiannual Report to Congress on the economy and monetary policy.
2. Margin Requirements, the down payment required on stocks which is now 50%,
is seldom changed.
3. Consumer Credit Controls, on items such as credit cards, work so well it is seldom used.
So Far So Good
Hope FED is Prints
The Federal Funds Rate
a. Most controllable interest rate
b. Targeted by monetary policy
c. It is the overnight interest rate banks with excess fed reserve charge
each banks short of fed reserve to keep the system in balance.
d. By controlling reserves, the fed controls this rate.
e. This allows them some control over short-term rates.
f. For more information visit Federal funds rate - Wikipedia
g. Taylor rule affected by Fed's QE policies. 2/3/14
1. Taylor rule would have kept millions out of work (Minneapolis Fed) 1/17
2. A Taylor Rule for Public Debt
C. Monetary Policy Internet Game lets you be the FED chairperson.
Quantitative: affect the money supply: with required reserve, open-market
operations, discount rate, term auction facility
Qualitative: affect financial participation with moral suasion, margin requirements,
consumer credit controls
1. The Brave New World of Monetary Policy SF FED explains
policy change resulting from the Great Recession 6/6/12
2. The Post Keynesian View-of Monetary Policy 12/10/15
Source Sober Look
IV Implementing Monetary Policy
A. Elements Of Monetary Policy Implementation Framework 1 of 4
B. Counterparties And Collateral Requirements Of Implementing Monetary Policy 2 of 4
C. How Do Central Bank Balance Sheets Change In Times Of Crisis Part 3 of 4
D. The Trouble With Macroeconomics centers on the failures of monetary policy
E. Summary: four Internet articles on difficulty of implementing monetary policy
V. Effectiveness of Monetary
1. Speedy and flexible
2. Somewhat isolated from political pressure
3. Hard money, restrictive Federal Policy, has worked well recently.
1. Easy money has not worked well.
a. In the early 1900's, it didn't stop a recession.
b. Low profit expectations by business and fears over possible
employment loss by workers make lower interest rates ineffective.
c. Interest rate cuts in 2001 were not able to stop a recession.
2. Bank deregulation has made commercial banks a less important supplier
of investment funds thus diminishing the effectiveness of monetary policy.
3. Changes in money velocity may negate some effects of monetary policy.
4. Fall in real interest rates increase demand for fixed assets.
C. Euro Monetar Policy Failed
Strengths: speedy, flexible, less political pressure, works well controlling inflation
but with pain
Weaknesses easy doesn't spur enough growth, velocity adjusts to counter reserve
1. Recent Events
a. The Great Recession had a monetary policy miscalculation
b. Greenspan's Ten-year Analyzed
a. Monetary Policy Basics
b. Monetary Policy Myths
c. On the importance of sound money
d. On-definitions of money critiques modern monetary policy
e. Monetary Policy will never be the same
f. The Zero Interest-rate Bound and Optimal Monetary Policy
g. When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?”
3. Learning tools from European Central Bank
a. Monetary Policy Game from the
b. Inflation Island another learning tool from ECB.
a. What Caused the Recession of 1937 Global Economic Intersection 8/212/13
Editors note: After WWI much of Europe inflation cause severe
apprehension that existed today. The U.S. is apprehensive concerning high
persistent unemployment because of the Great Depression of 1930's.
b. The Presidential Election Cycle Theory and the FED
c. 1994 FED Pre-emptive Inflation Strike Drew Controversy
d. Action to Stop Past Recessions, NYT 1p
by Eric Tymoigne, New Economic Perspectives
VI. QE2 Keeps Money Loose Readings
money creation, answers provided Monetary Policy practice questions, no answers provided.
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