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Editors note: By comparison, US total debt is low. Most of it was
piled up by households, businesses, and financial institutions with
government debt, state and local, fairly level. Since 2008,
all U.S. debt is down except the Federal Government, which is borrowing to
maintain entitlement and military spending and it is giving the states
money to forgo layoffs. U.S. consumer debt is down because people are
walking away from underwater real estate. See The
Economist and
The Debt Issue
for details.
|
Went for my
Sunday Ride Around rural, central Florida
Stopped by one of the many boat raps in rural Florida and found about
ten older trailers and trucks. Nice to see the average Joe enjoying
their day off. Visited one of our many county parks where electricity,
water, bathroom facilities and playgrounds are provided. Found
groups of four or five families with many children enjoying the day.
Many said "God Bless You" which reminded me this was the bible
belt. Stopped to grocery shop and saw a pickup with both regular hay and
really green hay. Turns out the green stuff was alfalfa the women
used to feed the horses she boarded.. She liked the tax advantage her
little farm received and felt "farmers must be protected."
Turns out her husband had a job that paid the families health insurance
and like many rural Floridians, she would vote Republican to keep
government out of her life. Driving home I wonder what the uninsured
boaters and picnic people would do if someone broke arm arm or leg. My
guess is they would go to the emergency room of the local hospital for
free treatment and like my farmer friend, vote republican to keep
government out of their lives.
|
|
Story of the month January
Editors Note: I
don't think of SS and Medicare as entitlements or transfer payments. I
started paying into SS at 16, paid in the max for 24 of the 25 years they
count and at 68, I'm still paying in. I realize its progressive and single
guys like me who stayed healthy and paid the maximum get less of a return
on investment than average earners and family people. No big deal. I got a
few tax benefits. But it is not a transfer payment or entitlement program,
its a return on a retirement/health policy investment. I was
fortunate to have company paid health care but Medicare and a supplemental
program still cost over $5,000 annually
|
What U.S. politicians know.
The Germany government spent $1.9 trillion modernizing East Germany.
It caused high unemployment and slow growth which continued into 2003.
Social Democrat Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who turned the
economy
around by fighting unions and many in his own party to limit
unemployment
benefits, rein in pensions, and reform of the labor market, was not
reelected
in 2005. From The
German Economic Colossus Issue 1/20/12 of The Week Magazine.Information
that caught my eye.
1) Revenue earned by M. Jackson
estate over 18 m0nths. 310,000,000,000.
2) Science and math Geeks totaling 51,000 from 186 countries signed up
to
a $1,000,000 contest to solve a high-tech problem to
increase productivity.
A company called Gaggle, noe employing 25,000
people quickly formed to
solve other difficult problems to increase
productivity.
3) Paralegals looking for information and journeyman sportswriters
can't keep
up with software.
4) China has institutional beds for only 1.6% of her over 60
population compared
to 8% for the developed world and unlike Japan who also has an older
population,
China will get old before she gets rich.
5) Tiger's X wife Ekin Nordegren has razed her recently purchased $12.2
million
North Beach House to build a more roomer palace. Tiger is living nearby
on Juniper
Island in a 9,727 sq. ft. home.
6) Total Apple iPad production costs of $275 get charged to our imports
from
China when only $10 is actual work (assembly) performed in China. Profit
Looks like we trade balance with China may be a little overstated.
http://www.pcic.merage.uci.edu/
Virginia Class Submarine Type:
nuclear submarine Total Cost: $83.7 billion
R&D: $7.2 billion > Procurement
Cost: $76.6 billion > Total Units: 30
Price per Unit: $2,552.6 million #3 on a list of big
budget defense items.
The Virginia Class submarines are arguably the most advanced nuclear
subs in the world.
The Virginia is 377
feet long and weighs 7,800 tons, or the equivalent of 821 school
buses.
The massive underwater craft is produced by General Dynamics
(NYSE; GD) Electric Boat
and Newport News Shipbuilding, which are the
only two shipyards capable of building nuclear
subs. The Virginias carry
38
different weapons, including Tomahawk Cruise Missiles, mines
and
torpedoes. While eight are currently in operation, the Department of
Defense
has 30 of these $2.5 billion subs budgeted.
Read more: The
10 Most Expensive Weapons in the World - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2012/01/09/the-10-most-expensive-weapons-in-the-world/#ixzz1j0hkLMg
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What I'm Thinking About e-mail
your comments
History
of the Banking Crisis
1971
The
Nixon Shock takes
U.S. off the partial Gold Standard, inflation results, and house prices
begin to dramatic rise.
1980's : Home Equity Loans/lines of credit
replace Home Improvement
Loans and
the bedrock of America's retirement savings begins to
disappear.
1986 Financial
Accounting Standards Board
becomes hypersensitive to offending the
sensibilities of big banking and big industry:
1988: Collateralized
Debt Obligation invented
by City Group,
use short-term low
interest borrowing to buy longer term
higher interest paying bundled
mortgages creating a substantial increase in the funds available for
home mortgages. CDO are a type of derivative
as they
derive their value form
the value of some underlying assets (mortgages).
1990's Rubin,
Summers, and Geithner strongly recommend government takeovers
to solve the emerging market banking
crisis.
The feel bank
owners and managers and crditors should bare the cost and taxpayers for
funding the takeovers, should get potential profits.
Community
Reinvestment Act is used by the Clinton Administration to increase
housing opportunities for the poor. Real estate and banking
professionals
turned
this into subprime
lending.
1999: Gramm-Leach-Bliley
Act, also known as the Financial Services Modernization Act
repealed the part of the Glass-Steagall Act that had prohibited
a bank from offering a full range of
investment, commercial banking, and insurance services since its enactment in 1933.
2000: Commodity
Futures Modernization Act deregulates
derivates. Recommended to President Clinton by the
President's Working Group on Financial
Markets--Lawrence
Summers, Treasury, Alan Greenspan, Fed, Arthur Levitt, SEC, William J.
Rainer,CFTC,
these derivatives, especially the
credit default swaps, would be at the heart of the financial
crisis of 2008 and the subsequent Great
Recession.
2003: Credit
Default Swaps, used to insure
CDO (derivative that bundled home
mortgages) were becoming a big money maker on Wall Street.
Anyone could buy them
for a small fraction of the derivatives face value because sellers
believed that a nationwide fall in house prices was not
possible.
By the end of 2007,
asset bundles insured for $62.2 trillion would fall by 2010 to
$26.3 trillion.
2008 3/14 Bear
Stearns suffers as subprime mortgages begin to fail. It
is bailed
out by the Federal Reserve and investment banks.
9 /15 Lehman
Brothers is not bailed out and becomes the country's largest
bankruptcy at $600 billion in assets.
Use of leverage
(borrowed money) caused large losses because the subprime
mortgage crisis made CDO to be worth much less than their book
value.
A panic
results as many
financial institutions were involved in the subprime derivatives using
leverage and insurance from sellers of CDS which
couldn't pay due to small reserves.
Rubin, Summers, and Geithner strongly
recommend a blank government check to solve
the U.S. banking crisis.
Bank
owners, creditos and managers feel no paid and get the potential
profits.
2008 AIG,
the world's 29th largest corporation in 2000 and a big one-sided player
in the CDS market (sold insurance but did not cover themselves by buying insurance)
is bailed out by the Federal
Reserve for investments totaling $185 billion.
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October Story of the Month
Editors Note: The bulk of the productity went to paying health
care and income to the top 1%.
|
Debt did not cause the banking crisis.
Unethical, mainly Republican politicians, local bankers, financial
bankers, real estate people, and home buyers were the cause.
The economic slowdown was caused by over
building in housing and the lack of demand caused by many
people borrowing on home equity that went away Those two alone
have caused a typical financial balance sheet recession where it
takes seven years on average to recover the 7 million lost jobs.
The real problem is future entitlements
all governments have promised but pay forr without a rapidly growing
economy-- remember, we never paid for WWII or any war, we just grow
our way out and beginning in 1980, used inflation. Both make the debt
go away as a percentage of GDP.
This real problem might cause a
society breakdown that could financially hurt people like myself.
I am dependent upon SS, Medicare, and a pile of retirement
money invested in corporate and government bonds plus a small pile of
cash. All four sources could lose out big time though if this
happens, the price of everything, including medical,
would really be low and the pile of money would be worth more.
I don't worry about these things as I
can't contro them. What I can control is sitting on the 15,000
dollars I would use to buy a new car, living on just annuity interest
and SS and enjoying life by watching the process unfolds.
This possible real problem was predicted
by the book Generations.
A shorted follow-up book entitled The The
Forth Tuening, is available in paper and audio tapes. It takes
place over 15-20 years beginning in 2010. There is also a blog
that the author stopped
contributing to December of 2010.
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Story of the Month
August
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from The
Week of August 19-26 |
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Making Sure Obama is not Hoover
August of 2011
Cut Future Spending Now
Cut Future Spending Now
1) Balance Social Security
now
e-mail
your comments
A. lower the inflation adjustment to just cover
inflation
B. raise both the early and normal retirement age for
those under 50
2) Lower Medicare costs by raising the eligibility age to the normal
retirement SS age of those under 60.
3) Delay the expenditure side of Obama Care until unemployment is below
8%
4) Extend the federal pay freeze until unemployment is below 7%
5) Freeze Federal government hiring and step increases until unemployment goes below 8%
6) Surtax of 5% to10% on taxable income over $1,000,000
7) Eliminate tax subsidies to farmers.
8) Tax away Social Security income for those with taxable income over
$100,000.
Allow Medicare to bargin with drug companies.
Raising Future Taxes Later
1) Retain payroll tax holiday for employees only until unemployment goes
below 8%
2) Retain the payroll tax cut on small business until they make a profit
3) Retain Bush Tax cut on those with taxable income over $500, 000 until
unemployment goes below 9%
4) Retain Bush Tax cut on those with taxable income over $250,000 until
unemployment goes below 8%
5) Retain Bush Tax cut for those with taxable income below $250,000
until unemployment goes below 7%
Lower Taxes Now
Eliminate Social Security taxes (Not Medicare) on the
owners (Not Employees) of new small businesses for two years then
permanently cut it by 50%.
There is no reason someone starting a small business should be required
to have for retirement. If successful, pay half since we don't know
how successful. And as a society, we can't just let them eat cake, which
is why we have Medicare and SS in the first place.
Increase Consumer Spending Now
1) Requiring banks to randomly select and securitize
5% of their delinquent loans every 3 month. Correct market price will
result quickly.
2) Requiring banks to refinance mortgages quickly with and
equity swap for collateralized bonds.
President Obama, like FDR, should keep Supreme Court
busy.
Increase Government Revenue Now
1) Replace our Democratic Capitalism with a
Capitalistic Democracy
2)
Create a Congressional
Information Office similar to the Congressional Budget office to supply legislative
information so congress and the public do not have to rely on lobbyist
and think tanks for date used for analyzing information related to
possible legislation.
Increase Government Revenue later.
Require banks to lower underwater mortgages
to collateral market value and government receivs 50% share in equity
over eventual home sale profits.
Educate the Public
Now
1) Calculate the Net Worth of the
Federal Government so people know the U.S. is not bankrupt
2) Explain why the Social Security will always be paid but probably with
dollars that are less valuable because of inflation
3) Explain how to lessen the hurt from inflation
4) Fix public education
A. Treat academic all stars like sports stars
B. Stress economic and personal skills
enhancement of those in the middle
C. Follow the lead of the cities like Baltimore in
keeping kids from dropping out
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Story of the Month
August 1 Tradable
Jobs http://www.economicpopulist.org/
From 1990 to 2008... " the 27.3 million jobs added from this time period,
97.7% of them were non-tradable. What do the authors mean by tradable
jobs? Jobs that can be offshore outsourced." ... "As an
example, health care must be domestically sourced because sick people are
here. Computer architecture, on the other hand, can be offshore outsourced
and the results moved around the globe to a manufacturing center."
But foreigners are investing here.
|
THE NEXT ECONOMY from the
Atlantic
A series of articles about education and job creation
trends that will impact the next decade.
America
2020: Health Care Nation
Four
Horsemen of the Job-Apocalypse
What
If Education Fails to Fix the Jobs Crisis?
The
Hallowing Out of America's Middle Class
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July 27, from Econmix of the NYT Where
the Job Growth Is: At the Low End A report finds that the jobs lost
in the recession were largely in the middle tier of wages, but most jobs
created in the recovery have been low-wage positions.
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In 1950, the United States Steel Corporation employed 30,000 workers at
its plant in Gary, Ind. Today that factory employs only 5,000 workers. But
they produce more steel:
7.5 million tons a year now, compared with 6
million tons then.
NYT 11/07/12/the
factory age isnt over
From 2006 through 2010, Detroit automakers shed an astonishing 120,000
jobs, more than one-third their combined total...
...pay benefits and other costs from dropped from $75 to $49 an
hour for Chrysler $78 to $58 for Ford. Newly hired hourly workers are paid
$14 to $16 an hour, about half what veterans get and are locked into
less-generous benefits than veteran workers and they will become the
majority of hourly workers as others age and leave. usatoday
2011-07-26.
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Author Ramblings
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your comments
7/25/11
Been thinking that the potential taxpayers revolt is not about the
money but what is bought with the money. We ran up a much bigger debt paying for WWII and
got little since our battle against Fascism was replaced with a battle
against Communism.
Ask anyone angry about government spending to cut three of the
following areas. Social Security, Medicare or Defense. They have a
problem. The big question is exactly how big is the divide between the
parties. The first big divide resulted in the Revolutionary War. The
second, the Civil War.Is this the third big divide? |
|
In 2005 the median income for a family of four was
$67,000.
June 21, 2011 Are
Taxes High or Low? A Further Look
NYT
 |
Author Ramblings
e-mail
your comments
Got
some Bad News Today 6/17
For years I've been wondering if bad health habits of baby boomers was
good news because they would die early and lower SS and Medicare
spending or bad news because they would long, sickly, debilitating lives
with high Medicare cost. The Week reported that cholesterol-cutting
medicine and diabetes drugs are keeping obese people alive until their
early eighties and they cost and extra 42% annually to keep alive. Obesity
Not Aging Causing Ballooning Health Care Costs.
6/15 On extending
the payroll tax cut
A two year delay in the employer portion of payroll taxes for start-ups
and a delay in additional spending on Obama care until unemployment drops
below 7% would both be better than existing small business adding
employees than paying lower payroll taxes. Lack of demand and
uncertainty are why existing small business are not hiring.
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6/14 The
Lost Decade? You Mean Another One?
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6/8 Bloomberg
Surveillance broadcasting from England taught me
1.With the Pound having less exorbitant
privileged than
the dollar,
England had to tighten earlier than he U.S.
or pay really high
borrowing cost. Her political cycle
being ahead
of the U.S. so
the Conservatives took over.
2. All economies can't tighten
at once or there would be
trouble.
3. Developing world is doing
better than developed world.
Big
Business is doing better than small business.
Europe's core is doing better than her periphery.
4. I didn't buy a new Infinite
G37 because Bernanke
lowered
the value of the dollar.
Question, will I buy a Cadillac CTS instead.
5. China doesn't have to
worry about political Courage.
6. Tom Keene thought Parliament
was less partisan.
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| |
May of 2011 Federal Spending in 2005 billions of dollars
Source [Excel 39k]
| [PDF 75k]
|
| Selected Years |
1990 |
2000 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
Change |
| Direct
payments to individuals, grants to State and Local Governments,
other grants |
903 |
1291 |
1640 |
1693 |
1742 |
1801 |
2079 |
2365 |
1,461 |
|
National defense |
461 |
361 |
495 |
499 |
509 |
549 |
580 |
626 |
165 |
|
Non discretionary |
279 |
191 |
218 |
218 |
167 |
200 |
440 |
226 |
-53 |
|
Net Interest |
256 |
251 |
184 |
219 |
223 |
232 |
169 |
168 |
-87 |
|
Undistributed offsetting
receipts |
-67 |
-53 |
-65 |
-66 |
-76 |
-78 |
-82 |
-70 |
-3 |
|
Total in Constant 2005
Billions of $ |
1,832 |
2,041 |
2,472 |
2,564 |
2,565 |
2,704 |
3,186 |
3,315 |
$1,483 |
| Change |
|
209 |
431 |
92
|
1 |
139 |
482 |
120 |
|
|
Bush I & Clinton |
Bush II |
Obama |
|
April, 2011 Are
State and Local Employees Paid too Much? from the NY
Times
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May, 2011
The Rise of the McWorker
The evidence points to the latter. According to a recent analysis
by the National Employment Law Project (NELP), the biggest growth in
private-sector job creation in the past year occurred in positions
in the low-wage retail, administrative, and food service sectors of
the economy. While 23% of the jobs lost in the Great Recession that
followed the economic meltdown of 2008 were “low-wage” (those
paying $9-$13 an hour), 49% of new jobs added in the sluggish
“recovery” are in those same low-wage industries. On the other
end of the spectrum, 40% of the jobs lost paid high wages ($19-$31
an hour), while a mere 14% of new jobs pay similarly high wages.
For more read Welcome
to the McJobs Recovery Andy Kroll, TomDispatch
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February, 2011 Drought
in China adds pressure to world food prices source
|
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| March, 2011
|
|
For some, Investing In
Social Security is a bad Idea.
Red, Bold people don't make it to collecting full SS at 67
|
Economist 7/2/11
|
Based on 50 year old,
5'8", single. non smoking, non drinking, poor eating,
non-seatbelts person living a sedimentary life working close
to home in a stress
free serviceindustry job earning $25,000 per
year. |
| Race |
Life Exp of Lowest Quartile
|
Life Exp for Median
|
| 150 lbs |
200lbs |
150 lbs |
200lbs |
| White |
64.42 |
62.04 |
70.53 |
69.16 |
| Nonwhite |
61.31 |
59.36 |
67.90 |
65.55 |
| Add One Pack
Smoking and 4+ Drinks Per Day |
| White |
61.17 |
59.54 |
67.441 |
65.23 |
| Nonwhite |
58.65 |
57.38 |
64.86 |
62.52 |
| 1Add
more than 10% calorie intake from fat and this drops to 66.9. |
| http://diskworld.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html |
Lost control of this presentation for a few months.
Data is good but not pretty to look at. Should of taken an HTML lesson back in
1994 but just kind of did it.
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January, 2011
Just-Released
IRS Data Show Effects of Our Radical New Greed-Is-Good Culture David
Sirota, Open Left
"We learn, for instance, that 1941's top executive at IBM, Thomas
Watson, collected $517,221 in compensation that year, about $7.7 million
in current dollars. Watson paid 69 percent of his total 1941 income in
federal income tax.
Last year, today's chief exec at IBM, Sam Palmisano, took home $24.3
million for his executive labors. We don't know how much income above
that sum Palmisano reported in 2009, or exactly how much of that total
he paid in taxes. But we do know that the 13,374 Americans who reported incomes over
$10 million in 2008, the latest year with IRS stats available, paid an
average 24.1 percent of their taxable incomes in federal income tax.
In other words, IBM CEO Palmisano last year took home, after
adjusting for inflation, over three times more than his predecessor
Thomas Watson took home in 1941. Yet Watson in 1941 paid almost three
times more of his income in federal income taxes than Palmisano likely
paid in 2009."
|
Unemployment-extension-wont-help-99ers/
from the NY
Times 12/18/10
The reason some may have already exhausted their
benefits is that the name 99er is a bit of a misnomer. Indeed 99 weeks
is the longest possible duration of unemployment, but the total varies
by state depending on the unemployment rate and whether the state
participates in certain voluntary programs. Before extended benefits
expired on Nov. 30, just 24 states and Washington D.C. offered the full
99 weeks. Six states offered benefits for 93 weeks, five had them for 86
weeks, nine allowed 73 weeks, and five states were at 60. Mississippi
was alone in offering 79 weeks. (The
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has a map here, but be
warned it could change with the release of state unemployment data
Friday.)
Click
here to see 19 scary facts about getting a job
|
Unemployment-extension-wont-help-99ers/
from the NY
Times
12/18/10
The reason some may have already exhausted their benefits is that the
name 99er is a bit of a misnomer. Indeed 99 weeks is the longest
possible duration of unemployment, but the total varies by state
depending on the unemployment rate and whether the state participates in
certain voluntary programs. Before extended benefits expired on Nov. 30,
just 24 states and Washington D.C. offered the full 99 weeks. Six states
offered benefits for 93 weeks, five had them for 86 weeks, nine allowed
73 weeks, and five states were at 60. Mississippi was alone in offering
79 weeks. (The
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has a map here, but be
warned it could change with the release of state unemployment data
Friday.)
Click here to see 19
scary facts about getting a job
|
|
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December, 2010
|
Ten Year Cost of Government Borrowing were putting on
a show in Europe on 11/23/10
German 2.63
U.S. 2.74
Spain 4.81
Portugal 6.90
Ireland 8.34
Irish 8.61
Greek over 12 percent for the first time since May 7,
just before the creation of a euro-area rescue facility. |
|
The EC Bank
saved Greece from default with a May bailout but rates were back near
their high on 10/23/10.
Interestingly, EURO countries have agreed to a bailout fund
but to date, no country has financed it. Since Spain is bigger than the
other PIIGS added together, lets hope the market stays somewhat happy
with her.
"Exorbitant
Privilege," old article on why we
are not Greece is still relevant
|
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November, 2010, With newly acquired power, what will
Republicans do about these trends? |
 |
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Workers Pay More
|
Government Worker Unaffected
In 2008, the average wage for 1.9 million federal civilian workers
was $79,197, which compared to an average $49,935 for the nation’s
108 million private sector workers (measured in full-time
equivalents). The figure shows that the federal pay advantage (the gap
between the lines) is steadily increasing. With much less pay volatility , government workers should be paid less,
not more!
Editors Note: Almost All Get Free Health Insurance. http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/08/its-good-to-work-for-government.html
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October of 2010
The Economist Magazine
Editor's Note: When savings from the
underground economy runs out, then debt will go up or aggregate
demand will go down.
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September of 1010
#1
from
Wall Street Journal's Real
Time Economics Blog
 
#2 Economists say state and local budget gaps are so vast
that up to 30,000 public jobs will be cut each month at least
through year’s end. And private companies that contract with states
and localities are likely to cut even more deeply.
All told, 600,000 to 700,000 jobs will probably vanish over the next
12 months at states, localities, private contractors, and other
businesses that depend on government business, according to the
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington think tank.
The July unemployment report, released Friday, showed state and
local governments cut 48,000 jobs last month — more than in any
month in the last year.
State and local governments already have shed 169,000 jobs this
year. And since their peak in 2008, state and local payrolls have
shrunk by 316,000, a figure that does not include private sector
jobs tied to government spending
# 3
David_McCandless' Video The Beauty of Data Visualization from
TED: Ideas worth spreading.
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It's Time for a Kendel!
Enjoy the NYT
on your Kindle |
August of 1010
Bush tax cuts through 2020: $3.5 trillion.*
Income tax cut < $250,000 $1,184 billion
Income tax > $250,000 a year or more: $700 billion
Alternative minimum tax change: $584 billion**
Marriage tax relief: $360 billion
$1,000 child tax credit: $359 billion
Capital-gains and dividend tax cuts: $238 billion
Other: $71 billion
* This analysis excludes the estate
and gift tax cuts.
** Without this patch, the AMT would
snatch back the Bush cuts from many higher-income taxpayers
Data: Joint Committee on Taxation, Treasury Dept. and Bloomberg
Businessweek |
Free
Trade Doesn't Work book review
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Story of
the Month July, 2010 Do we really have too much debt?
GDP for 2009 estimated at $14.0 trillion
Debt is 3.697 x 14.0 = about $52.0 trillion
About $13 trillion each for Households, Governments,
Financial Corporations, Non-financial Corporations. |
Household and
Nonprofit equity = $54.0 trillion see chart
2005 value of American companies $21.0 trillion
source
Valve of federal, state, and local governments, unknown
but certainly
over their share. |
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Story of the Month, July 2010
The High Budgetary Cost of Incarceration
June 2010, John Schmitt, Kris Warner, and Sarika Gupta
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Business
Bookstores
Audio Books
Business Book Summaries
E-Books
Paper
Books
Home
Based Business
Business Magazines
Discounted Textbooks
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Story of the Month 2,
June 2010Saving Social Security
12 ways to fix Social Security MSN
A report (.pdf file) recently issued by the Senate
Special Committee on Aging outlines policies Congress
could institute to lower or eliminate Social Security's
projected deficit. Options include tax increases,
benefit cuts and program tweaks that could be
Here's a look at possible Social Security fixes:
Reduce benefits by by 3% for new
beneficiaries beginning in 2010
Lower shortfall by 18%
Lower shortfall by 30% with a 5% cut
Increase from 35 the number of years use for
calculate SS
Lower shortfall by 14% for 38 years
Lower shortfall by 23% for 40 years
|
Raise pending retirement age to
67 right away or
Raise retirement age to 68 or higher or
Index retirement age to longevity
Lowers shortfall by about 30%
Increase 6.2% contributions from workers and
employers
7.3% would eliminate deficit
Increase 6.2% to 7.2% in 2022 and 8.2% in
2052
would eliminate deficit
Increase contribution by .05% per year for 20
years
Lowers shortfall by about 70%
Increase income base from 106,800 to 100%.
Illuminates shortfall if increase didn't count toward
benefit
Lowers shortfall by 95% if increase counts toward
benefit
Business Specialty Stores
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Story of the Month, June 2010
The Sagging of the Middle Class
 
See Also
The Great Deprivation,
How Much Do We Spend Caring for Family?,What
We’ve Learned: Our (Increasingly) Non-Market Economy,
What We Don’t Know, and Perhaps Can’t,
The Disservice Economy |
Story of the Month, May 2010
In 2009, U.S. Treasury Debt held
by foreigners was only 5.8%
(3,162/64,464)x100 of U.S.
Households and Nonprofit
Organizations Net Worth.
China, Mainland 744
Japan 768
United Kingdom 2/ 234
Oil Exporters 3/ 219
Brazil 171
Hong Kong 152
Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/ 144
Taiwan 121
Russia 120
Total-all countries 3,162
Cash, Savings, Money 7,750
Markets of U.S. Household
and Nonprofits
Their Net Worth was 54,176
Net Worth was 64,464
in 2006.
Editors Note: So much for the U.S. needing
China to finance our federal debt.
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Story of the Month, April, 2010
Don’t believe the hype on GM’s loan. repayment. |
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Story of the Week,
March 28, 2010
Older Americans Made the Recession Look Better (Excerpts) by Marianna
Kudlyak, Devin Reilly and Stephen Slivinski of the Federal Reserve Bank
of Richmond.
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Story of the Week March 22, 2010
No One is Paying More Federal
Taxes
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Story of the Week
Feb 8, 2010 Since 1945,
State and local government taxes have
doubled, Federal taxes until the Great Recession
were
fairly constant. Note
that the feds pass many Medicare
and Medicaid costs to the
state.
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Story of the Week March 15, 2010 
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Story of the Week March 15, 2010
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| Story of the Week Feb15, 1010
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Story of the Week Feb22,2010
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Story of the Week
Feb1, 2010
Formal Education Beyond High School
Not Required for 66% of the Job Openings
from 2008 to 2018
Bureau of Labor Statistic
PDF (3.5M) |
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Story of the Week
Feb8, 2010
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Story of the Week Jan 25, 2010
from the The Big Picture
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Story of the Week Jan 18, 2010
The Economist Magazine,
p32 of 1/16/10 |
Story of the Week
Jan 18, 2010
Bernanke's
Double Bubble Bind
(Series/The
Government We Deserve)
C.
Eugene Steuerle |
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January 4, 2010
Story of the Week
Source:
The lost decade for the economy
NEIL IRWIN, CRISTINA RIVERO AND TODD LINDEMAN
Washington Post, January 1, 2010 |
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December 28 Story of the
Week
Health Care Basic Data from Advanced Countries
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December 21
Story of the Week
The Party is Over: Copenhagen Devolved,
Ricky Rood is a professor at U of Michigan and course leader on
climate change and how it interplays with business and policy. This is
his Blog to
www.wunderground.com/
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December
14
Story of the Week
Household Debt Problem
Editors Note: When home improvement loans became
home equity loans, we were doomed by the housing cycle which was a
major contributor to the Great Depression.
 
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Chart courtesy of
NYT
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December 7 Story of the Week
NFIB Jobs Statement: Expect Coal in
Small Business
Stockings
National Federation of Independent
Business (hat tip reader Scott, who
points out that this report is very
much at odds with Friday’s
employment release). Editors Note: The federal government
spends so much time seasonally
adjusting data that understanding
what is happening is difficult. |
November 30
Story of the
Week
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Why You'd Better Beware of the 'Big Shift' from Business
Week of November 23, 2009
Conventional wisdom says productivity is a key driver of
corporate profitability. Yet this long-held assumption is challenged by a
report from Deloitte's Center for the Edge. The study, led by John Hagel III
and John Seely Brown, finds that despite major improvement in labor
productivity over the past four decades, many U.S. industries have
experienced "alarming" declines in return on assets (ROA), a key metric of
corporate performance. The authors say that trend is being driven by what
they term the "Big Shift"—a tremendous increase in competitive pressures,
combined with the increasingly pervasive digital infrastructure.
In a follow-up report released on Nov. 10, Hagel & Co. delve
deeper into the numbers to figure out how the Big Shift is playing out in
nine U.S. industries. Surprisingly, the steepest declines in ROA came in
technology, telecommunications, and media—sectors traditionally regarded as
innovation hotbeds. The auto industry also had a poor showing, though that's
not so startling. Banking, retail, consumer products, and insurance fared
better. But only two sectors, health care and aerospace/defense, saw ROA
climb. Keep in mind that these industries are subject to heavy government
regulation, which tends to muffle competition.
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Overall, the Deloitte report provides fodder for
those, like BusinessWeek's Michael Mandel, who argue that the woes of
the U.S. economy extend beyond the financial sector and began showing up
well before the housing bubble. (Deloitte's Center for the Edge, "2009 Shift
Index") —Edited by Harry Maurer & Cristina Linblad |
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November 9 Story
of the Week
Krugman on the Need for Jobs Policies from Naked Capitalism |
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November 2 Story
of the Week
Unemployment hits 10.2% and
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| Long-Term Unemployed Are Losing Skills
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As The Economy Improves, Some Will Get More Hours Before Hiring
Begins |
Others Will Re-Enter The Labor Force
So
Both
Employment And The Rate of
Unemployment
Will Go Up For A While.
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Politics
A Christmas Story
The Death of Conservatism
authors interview on Charlie
Rose 10/2009
5 Myths About Health Care Around the
World
(Washington Post) 8/27/09
Historian Juan Cole & Journalist Shahan
Mufti
Bill Moyers speaks with historian Juan Cole and
journalist Shahan Mufti about the U.S. relationship with Pakistan, how
it relates to the war in Afghanistan, and why they think Pakistan is not
likely to become a failed state anytime soon.
A populist interpretation of the latest
Boom-Bust cycle 05/09
William K. Black: CSI Bailout
Bill Moyers sits down with William K. Black, the former
senior regulator who cracked down on banks during the savings and loan
crisis of the 1980s. Black offers his analysis of what went wrong and
his critique of the bailout.
Dark musings, 2009-03-24
from Steve Waldman who explains how the cost
to the tax payer of the private-public partnership may be larger than it
appears
because the FDIC will leverages up the assets bought with a given
investment.
The Limits of Power Bill Moyers sits
down with history and international
relations expert and former US Army
Colonel Andrew J. Bacevich who
identifies three major problems facing our
democracy: the crises of economy,
government and militarism, and calls for a
redefinition of the American way of life.
Russia and a new democratic realism
Francis Fukuyama, Financial Times
Here Are Five Things Republicans Won't
Tell You: Caroline Baum |
The Deficit Been
Bigger
Econbrowser, March 26,2009
|
5/30/11
Solving the debt issue.
IAs far as the ability to pay is
concerned, growth around the world will create demand and we are in
a good position to compete.
Also Social Security is a non issue as
its projected increase is from 6% to 7% of GDP because of baby
boomers and then spending falls back to 6%.
Here is the problem.
The U.S. had a 30 years of
industrial monopoly/oligopoly power after WWII that
generated high profits and wages for many people.
Germany, England and Japan
recovered and with the advantage deteriorating, companies,
unions and governments spent the next 30 years protecting what
they could. Unions failed the private sector and the public
sector now makes more dalary and are promised excessive, unaffordable
retirement benefits. Lately, a world wide competitive
adjustment in our "Flat World" caused by Schumpeters's
Creative Destruction has been hurting workers in the US and as
excess profits disappeared, politicians allowed remaining
profits to go to owners in a second, now ending, Gilded Age.
It is all coming to a head because of
another change. High defense spending during the Cold War
when combined with health care, came to 15% plus 5% = 20%
of GDP. With the end of the Cold War, defense spending dropped but health
care increased so now the percentages are reversed. Defense
is now about 5% and health care about 15%. Defense
can't fall much more than a percentage point or two over an
extended period so we need another way to pay for health care.
Three Options
Obama care or whatever takes its place
will cost less than a trillion dollars. This year, five percent of
GDP is $700 billion. All we have to do is allocate GDP
growth to health care. Problem is over. Its kind of like
people saving money. Want to save 5% a year for life. just take
this years raise and save it. Next years raise can be spent. Want to
save 10% per year, do it again in a few years. But no one wants to
do it. How about 1% per year for five years. No, I want mine. "I
want it Now"!
Everyone has at least one place where
they do not want to cut. Medicare, defense, education/social
spending, cut all three equally.
Decrease spending, increase taxes, we
need five percent. Twelve to eighteen months GDP growth. Its not
that much.
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Economics
Democratic Capitalism
vs Capitalistic Democracy is from our
editor.
"Exorbitant
Privilege," old article on
why we are not Greece is still relevant
A Brief History of U S Banking
7/24/10
"The Global Jobs Competition Heats Up" Economist's View 7/1/10
Jobless recoveries econbrowser,
J6/30/10
America's Ten Most Corrupt Capitalists
AlterNet,
Zach Carter
5/13/10
entitlements-picking-up-in-u-s
and
Entitlements Part II 05/10
How to walk the fiscal tightrope that lies before us (FT)
2/18/10
MIT World Videos on Economics
for 2009
Hard Road Ahead
Hoisington Investment Management, 1/15/10, is a concise explanation of
why this economist feels there will be little inflation.
The Year's Biggest Ideas in Economics NYT from The New Republic,
12/30/09
Paul Volcker Finds a Hammer
December 17, 2009
Econ Talk
This Week
covers many ineresting current economic topics. December 14, 2009
What America Needs is an Economic
Strategy from Michael Porter of Business
Week October 30,2009
Are Federal Workers Overpaid? NYT 10/13/09
Bill Moyers
10/9/09
Marcy Kaptur
Simon Johnson rep from Ohio and Simon Johnson
professor of Global Economics and Management at M.I.T.'s Sloan School of
Management think Wall Street is still running
the show?
American inequality
has its magnitude of been
exaggerated? 9/23/09
Long Term Unemployment Rate 9/9/09
Recession Job Losses: 3 Views
9/9/09
Unemployment: The Harder You Look, The
Uglier It Appears
9/2/09
The lost decade shows how growth
has been slow for a while. Comments are very interesting. 08/20/09
Broad Unemployment Across the U.S.
Check out this interactive map from the July 14,
2009 NYT.
Where Are We Now? Five Point Summary
written by Simon Johnson, June 13, 2009 at 9:01 am from baselonesenario.com
The new global balance: Financial
de-globalization, savings drain, and the US dollar
clearly explains what might happen to interest
rates and what might have happened with little government involvement.
Fed Watch: Turning Which Corner?
05/11/09 -Tim Duy
Recession, Far From Over, Already Setting
Records
4/25/ NYT
Four Markers to an Economics TurnAround
"Just How Progressive Is the Tax System?"
US families lost $11 trillion in 2008
"Household assets as a whole fell 15% to $65.7 trillion,
unadjusted for inflation, compared with a decline of less than a
percentage point to $14.2 trillion in total household liabilities.
The net worth of American households -- the difference between assets
and liabilities -- was $51.5 trillion, down $11.2 trillion, or nearly
18%, from 2007. That sets Americans' total wealth back to levels lower
than in 2004. It was the first decline in American household net worth
since 2002."
Analysis: Since 2008 started at the end of both a housing and a
stock market bubble, it seems to me American families are still
much better off than they were before the bubbles and spending slow down
should not be dramatic and as soon as unemployment stops increasing,
spending should begin to rise at a sustainable rate.
|
Businessinsider.7-most-illuminatingeconomic
charts of 2011-12
|
Current data on
The Business Cycle.
Radio Economics
A new dynamic for the Middle East
Jim Hamilton, Econbrowser Jim Hamilton, Econbrowser
U.S. Expansion May Be First in Six Decades to
End Without Income Recovery
Bootstrap Theory of OilPrices by Anthony de
Jasay explains why speculators are not causing high oil prices.
Obama vs. McCain on Taxes, Economy,
Social Scurity
Podcast from Bloomberg
The Shock Doctrine: The evil of “Disaster
Capitalism”, a book report video was posted
to
the
Crooks and Liars
blog on December 1, 2007
Income Inequality Gap Widens
By GREG IP
October 12, 2007; Page A2 of the Wall
Street Journal
Who has the Oil
from the Energy Bulletin
Help Not Wanted, Congress is doing its best to lose
the global talent war from The
Economist Magazine of April 8, 2008
2008/05/Paul Volcker
on the 2007-08 financial crisis and the Federal
Reserve bailout of Bear Stearns.
Investing in college: Is it worth it? |
|
The prophets of doom Meet the Cassandra's, 14
economists, bloggers, politicians and businesspeople of all political
stripes who have become the most strident critics of President Obama's
stewardship of the economy. Source:
The prophets of doom Andrew Leonard mSalon, Apr. 16, 2009
|
| Critique |
Employment |
Stimulus |
Bank Plan |
Alternate Plan |
| P Krugman, Princeton |
Economist |
Too Small |
Won't Work |
Nationalize |
G Mankiw
Harvard |
Economist
|
tax cuts better, buy American is bad part |
bank creditors need
to accept loss |
|
S Johnson&
R. Kurtz |
Blog founder
MIT Professor |
Too Small |
Won't work |
Oligarchs should be put into receivership |
| N Roubini, NYU |
Economist |
fewer tax cuts, better international coordination |
Changed mind, plan is viable |
Nationalize |
W. Buiter
London Sch of Econ |
Economist |
Won't work |
Its financial shenanigans |
close zombie banks |
M Wolf
Fin Times |
Ass Ed and
Fin Commentator |
Not large enough if others don't help more |
Won't work |
close zombie banks |
W Black
U of Missouri |
Economist |
Too Small |
designed to cover up fraud by banker |
put into receivership |
D Baker
Center for Econ
&Policy Research |
Co-director |
Too Small |
Won't Work |
banks getting too much, taxpayers too little |
The War
5/1/11 The War is Over
Presidents Obama and President Bush should have a
fireside chat with the American people. From the Oval Office
our current president would thank his predecessor for having the foresight and gumption
to make sure Bin Laden
was not able to manage a world wide organized terrorist movement. Al queda
has been dispersed to many parts
of the world and their leader is dead. President Bush should thank President
Obama for continuing the fight,
thank the American people for making the financial and personal sacrifice
needed to continue an unpleasant task,
and thank American soldiers and law enforcement officials for making us
safer. Both men should warn that as it was before 9/11,
terrorist groups of all types from many cultures will attack cultures that
differ. But the war is over! We can now direct
our maximum attention to making sure terrorist do not get a nuclear bomb, a
difficult but less demanding task.
Both men should agree that we are not now , and must protect against
creating, the Orwellian world of 1984.
Guest Post: Instead of Fixing the U.S. Economy or Creating Jobs for
AMERICANS, Obama Will Spend The Money in Afghanistan and Iraq
4 Nov 2009 11:34 AM PSTThe Economist,
November 3-9,2007, page 17 of A special report on religion and public
life.
" One great irony of the war on terror is that although George Bush has
declared war on jihadism, his enemy devote very little energy to fighting
him.
The jihadists' main war is not against the West but against apostate
Muslim regimes [those that reject the faith]: where they do battle with
outsiders,
it is mainly against occupying powers--Russia in Chechnya,
America in Iraq, India in Kashmir, and Israel in Pakistan."
The Limits of Power: Democracy Now interview Andrew Bacevich, a conservative historian who spent
twenty-three years serving in the US Army.
Some Facts from Wikipedia and Sunset Social Studies
Department
A Concise 20th Century History of Iran
A Concise 20th Century History of Iraq
Sunnis and Shiites at War
History
of Al Qaeda Power Point
Sunset
Al-Qaeda, Taliban, and Muslim Fundamentalism
Militant Hamas versus Moderate Fatah
in Palestine
Historical Timelines collected by George
Emery a librarian at Canisius College.
Iraq Timeline
Iraq History Timeline
The Iraq Crises Timeline
- MidEastWeb
First Gulf War Timeline
Iraq
War II Power Point
Sunset Social Studies Department
September 11, 2001: Timeline of Terrorism
- InfoPlease
Terrorist Attacks in U.S. Timeline
- InfoPlease
History of Terrorism : Timeline of Terrorist Acts
Book Reviews
from the New
York Times, Crooks and Liars, and The Economist
Blackwater
The Rise of the World's Most Powerful Mercenary
Army
Book Review-- American Dynasty
Aristocracy,
Fortune, and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush
Book Review-- HOUSE OF BUSH, HOUSE OF SAUD
The Secret Relationship Between the World's Two Most Powerful
Dynasties from the New York Times
Book Reviews-- Presidential Courage
summary of the first eight chapters from
How jihad went freelance is
a review of three recent books. Al-Qaeda
has evolved from a single group to an amorphous movement.
Does that make
it less dangerous or more so?
Jan 31st 2008 of The Economist.
Book Summaries from
21st Century Learning Products
American Dynasty
Aristocracy,
Fortune, and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush,
by Kevin Phillips
Second Chance
Three Presidents and the Crisis of
America Superpower, by Zbigniew Brzezinski
Presidential Courage
Brave Leaders and How They Changed America 1789-1989,
by
Michael Beschloss
Social Security
To
Improve Social Security, "Follow the Money"
by Walter Antoniotti Data is from
The Center For Retirement
Research at Boston College
Effects of
long-term care
on Medicaid costs.
The recent trend towards
later retirement.
Will people be healthy enough to
work longer?
Social Security Benefits are Progressive
Our Experts Can Help With
Difficult Assignments
History
Literature
Psychology
Sociology
Social Science
|
Educ ation
edited by
21st Century Learning Products
College
Educated Wasting Degree
1/4/11
Thoughts on President Obama's
Educational_Plans
The Sagging of the Middle Class.
Technology and Trade are destroying good jobs.
Weighing the Value of an Elite-College Degree
Pay Scale Com
has useful career information.
Lies My Teacher Told Me Audio Book
6 reasons not to save for kids' college
10/13/09
Best Undergrad College
Degrees By Salary
The months since the collapse of
Lehman
Brothers
have been disastrous
for
professionals, except those in the fields of health care and education.
From
August to April, there was an overall drop in employment of 4.3%.
More
significant, however, were the steep declines in highly skilled occupations:
9.3% in computer and math jobs, 10.3 For more read % in engineering and
architecture occupations, and a whopping 11.5% in arts, design,
entertainment,
sports, and media occupations.Economy Takes White-Collar Workers to the
Cleaners
Tue Jun 9th, 2009,
www.minyanville.com,
Ryan Goldberg
Good
social skills enhance earning potential.
Book Reviews of Real
Education Real Education
1
and 2
Real
Education 2
by
Alan Murray, bestselling author of The Bell Curve.
Education and Income Inequality,
chapter 21 of The Age of Turbulence,
Adventures in a New World, by Alan Greenspan
From the Department of Labor
About13.9 million( 25%)
of
the 54 million job openings to be filled by workers entering
an
occupation for the first time between 2004 and 2014 will be by college
educated workers. .
Only 6.9
million(12.8%) of the openings will be for "pure college
graduate" occupations, "...
those where at least 60 percent of current
workers aged 25-44 have a bachelor’s or higher
degree, fewer than 20 percent
have a high school diploma or less education, and fewer
than 20 percent have
taken college courses but do not have a bachelor’s degree." For
economic
analysis by
different occupations read
No Bachelors Degree
and
Sundry Material
Did You Know
explores the future with interesting
statistics.
College Graduates
from the Fall of
2006 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. From the
Washington Monthly
"Is
Our Students Learning?"From Forbes Magazine
Five Reasons To Skip College
Click here to see the five more reasons not to go to
college.
From the National Center on Education and the
Economy
Tough Choices’: Radical Ideas, Misguided Assumptions
is a good
summary with an incorrect
conclusion. Do no harm means take
no risks and "Creative Destruction' requires we take risks.
From
Walter Antoniotti,
Every Child Employable,
not "No Child Left Behind", should be our educational slogan.
Governors Wrong, College Prep Not For Everyone
provides information on how many
need a college degree.
Education is Up For All, Wages are Up For Some
Women
Education Reform
explains why educators, not academicians
should design our
educational system.
Investing
In Education, An Economic View
is provided by leading economists and managers.
Not All College Majors Are Created Equal
Interesting Thoughts Concerning Education from
Business Experts
A little humor?
The 5 Minute
University
Editor:
Walter Antoniotti
curator of the
Free Internet Libraries
author of the
Quick Notes Learning Systems free books series
President of
21st
Century Learning Products
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Health
America lags behind its peers in
preventing avoidable deaths.
www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10499177
-
Similar pages |
The Urban Institute
estimates that
137,000 people died between 2000 and 2006 because they were uninsured. NYT
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Health
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Miscellaneous
Who has the Oil from The Big Picture blog of December 22, 2007 For
more info read the
Energy Bulletin.
|
The Shock Doctrine: The evil of “Disaster Capitalism”
Posted: 01 Dec 2007 06:40 PM CST
 Download
(1076) | Play
(1167)  Download
(610) | Play
(657) (h/t Logan)
There has been no shortage of books chronicling the dystopia
that is the Bush Administration. And in this job, I’ve read
quite a few of them. None of them have made as powerful an impact
as Naomi Klein’s
The Shock Doctrine. I promise you, it will change how
you look at government policy and responses. It also finally
sealed forever, for me at least, the coffin of the utter bollocks
of Friedman economics. Listen to me carefully, you free market
fanatics: FRIEDMAN. POLICIES. DO. NOT. WORK. PERIOD. His version
of ‘free market economics’ STIFLES democracy. They create an
oligarchy that is the opposite of democracy.
Don’t believe me? Author Naomi Klein gives compelling examples
in history proving that “Disaster
Capitalism” has been the foundation of government’s actions
and how none of it has been done for the benefit of the populace.
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Al-Qaeda
How jihad went freelance
Jan 31st 2008
From The Economist print edition
Al-Qaeda has evolved from a single group to an amorphous movement.
Does that make it less dangerous or more so?
Panos
TERRORISTS are a bit like you and me, or so Marc Sageman suggests. It
might be comforting to think that angry young Islamists are crazed
psychopaths or sex-starved adolescents who have been brainwashed in malign
madrassas. But Mr Sageman, a senior fellow at the
Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, explodes each of
these myths, and others besides, in an unsettling account of how al-Qaeda
has evolved from the organisation headed by Osama bin Laden into an
amorphous movement—a “leaderless jihad”.
Mr Sageman is a leading advocate of what is called the “buddy” theory
of terrorism. He has spent much time asking why well-educated young men,
from middle-class backgrounds, often with a secular education and wives
and children, become suicide bombers. He suggests that radicalisation is a
collective rather than an individual process in which friendship and
kinship are key components.
The process has four stages. The initial trigger is a sense of moral
outrage, usually over some incident of Muslim suffering in Iraq,
Palestine, Chechnya or elsewhere. This acquires a broader context,
becoming part of what Mr Sageman calls a “morality play” in which Islam
and the West are seen to be at war. In stage three, the global and the
local are fused, as geopolitical grievance resonates with personal
experience of discrimination or joblessness. And finally the individual
joins a terrorist cell, which becomes a surrogate family, nurturing the
jihadist world-view and preparing the initiate for martyrdom. Many Muslims
pass through the first three phases; only a few take the final step.
Mr Sageman has unusual credentials: a former CIA
officer, he is also a forensic psychiatrist and a counter-terrorism
consultant. He published the first version of his theory three years ago
in an influential book, “Understanding Terror Networks”. His aim, to put
the study of this new kind of terrorism on to a scientific footing, has
not changed. But al-Qaeda has, and the task of analysing it has become
more complex.
In his new book Mr Sageman's sample of militants has grown from 172 to
500. He gives more prominence to Europe, where, after the London and
Madrid bombings and other thwarted attempts, a new front-line has opened
up. He devotes a chapter to the internet. Crucially, he argues that most
of today's suicide bombers have little or no link with the original
al-Qaeda (dubbed “al-Qaeda central”) but are part of a broader, more
amorphous phenomenon which he calls the “al-Qaeda social movement”. Mr
Sageman is sceptical of the view, which gathered weight last year, that
“al-Qaeda central” is resurgent. Rather, it is the mutual attraction of
freelance jihadists, outraged by the Iraq war and increasingly mobilised
online, which should worry us most.
Like others, Mr Sageman believes the Iraq war, which appeared to
legitimise the idea of a rapacious West in conflict with Islam, was a
spectacular own-goal for America. Unless that idea can be successfully
countered, he says, America may find itself confronting not just a
terrorist fringe but a substantial segment of the Muslim world, which
would intensify and prolong the conflict to disastrous effect. A
successful hearts-and-minds campaign, on the other hand, would stiffen
moderate spines and help take the glory out of jihadism; eventually, “the
leaderless jihad [would] expire, poisoned by its own toxic
message.” It is an optimistic conclusion, given all that has gone before.
There is much common ground between Mr Sageman and Daniel Byman, a
counter-terrorism expert at Georgetown University and the Brookings
Institution who was at one time on the staff of the National Commission on
Terrorist Attacks upon the United States (also known as the 9-11
Commission). He too laments the Bush administration's lack of a coherent
strategy, the needless alienation of allies, the failure to win Muslim
hearts and minds, and the deadly fall-out from Iraq. Both authors believe
that in the war of ideas Americans should focus on jihadist brutality
rather than trying to burnish their own image. Both regard Europe as the
main battleground, and they also question just how useful democratisation
can be as a tool of counter-terrorism; indeed Mr Sageman believes it is
entirely irrelevant.
Mr Byman argues that America must do better on five fronts: the
military, the war of ideas, intelligence, homeland defence and, in a
nuanced way, democratic reform. Many of his policy proposals are eminently
sensible, though some people will decry his advocacy of Israeli-style
targeted killings. But where Mr Sageman is plain spoken, Mr Byman is often
hesitant and diffuse. He has a disconcerting knack of undercutting his own
arguments. Moreover, his remorseless concentration on prescription, with a
minimum of explanatory background, will put off all but the most dedicated
experts.
Counter-terror specialists are seldom knowledgeable about the
intricacies of modern Islam, and vice versa. Those looking for a reliable
guide to the currents of political Islam, of which al-Qaeda-style jihadism
is but one, could do worse than turn to a young American scholar, Peter
Mandaville, an associate professor at George Mason University, near
Washington, DC. Mr Mandaville's primer, “Global
Political Islam”, is a well-informed account of the origins of mainstream
Islamism, the strategies of Islamisation, the emergence of the radical
fringe, the competition for authority among Muslim elites and the impact
of globalisation on Muslim politics. This is a study which sets out to
transcend the “narrow moment” of al-Qaeda. Given our current obsession
with global jihad, this book is a welcome companion to Mr
Sageman's work.
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A Brief History of the Gains from
Deficits and Debt.
In 1940, the federal gross debt was
about 42 billion dollars or 40+% of GDP and the U.S. was facing
the first axis of evil, Germany, Japan and Italy. By 1946 the federal
debt was 270 billion dollars or 120+% of GDP. This addition to
the debt had been raised by the sale of bonds to Americans using
massive bond drives. The U.S. still faced an axis of evil, the Soviet
Union. Most of the physical items bought with this debt had been
destroyed by the war though the worlds largest and most technically
advanced industrial complex which would rule the free world until the
oil embargos of the 1970's had been built. Soon to President General
Eisenhower would later warn that this industrial complex might be taken
over by those with strong military interests.
In 2008 the gross debt was about 10
trillion dollars or 70+% of GDP and the US was still facing an
axis of evil. This time it was Iran, South Korea and others. The new
president wants to increase the debt to grow the economy. Some don't
like the bigger debt. Others don't like wasting it on energy and
green projects. Still others fear the new debt will cause a great
inflation.
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